The Wisconsin/Nebraska Spread Is Surprisingly High
Wisconsin is a massive favorite against Nebraska this Saturday.
As of Monday morning, the 5-5 Badgers are -13 favorites on DraftKings against the 3-7 Cornhuskers in Lincoln. While Nebraska is certainly not good, the fact Wisconsin is a double score favorite doesn't make a ton of sense.
The Badgers are coming off a brutally tough 24-10 loss to Iowa, and the team couldn't have looked much worse.
Should Wisconsin be favored against Nebraska?
Graham Mertz threw two interceptions on 16/35 passing and the offense looked overwhelmed by the Hawkeyes. We also somehow made Iowa's offense look competent. Granted, turning the ball over multiple times didn't help. There's still no excuse for allowing Iowa's offense to score.
Now, the oddsmakers watched the mess unfold in Iowa City over the weekend, and decided the Badgers should be multiple score favorites. As a Wisconsin man, I'm sincerely asking how the hell that makes any sense?
Now, let me extend an olive branch to all the critics. I am very aware I picked Wisconsin to roll Saturday. That didn't happen, and I'm more than capable of taking my licks.
However, it's my natural pessimism that has me seriously questioning being a -13 favorite against Nebraska.
It likely comes down to whether or not Nebraska QB Casey Thompson plays against the Badgers. If he does, -13 seems insane for Wisconsin. If he doesn't, the line starts to become a bit more believable. I'm still not sure I'd take it, but it's an immediate hard pass if Thompson is QB1 for Mickey Joseph this weekend.
Wisconsin might have more talent on paper, but after what we saw against Iowa, there's no reason to be overly optimistic. It's just tough to believe Wisconsin will beat Nebraska by multiple touchdowns.
I'm going to need to be sold, and I'm just not buying it right now.
Having said all that, I was wrong about Iowa, and I could be wrong here. As of right now, I'm certainly not confident. That might change over the week, but -13 seems way too dangerous in my mind.