The Total For Lakers-Warriors Game 2 Is Too High
The 7-seed Los Angeles Lakers (1-0) stole Game 1 of the 2023 Western Conference Semifinals vs. 6-seed Golden State Warriors (0-1) behind a monster defensive effort from Anthony Davis.
Lakers-Warriors returns to the Chase Center for Game 2 Thursday with tip-off at 9 p.m. ET. AD had 4 blocks Tuesday, grabbed a team-high 23 rebounds, and a +42 net rating.
Warriors G Stephen Curry has his shot blocked by Lakers big Anthony Davis in the 4th quarter during Game 1 of the 2023 NBA playoffs at the Chase Center. (Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Network)
Splash Brothers Steph Curry and Klay Thompson combined to score an inefficient 52 points and Warriors backup guard Jordan Poole added 21 points.
Aside from LAL's defense, the difference in Game 1 was the free-throw battle. The Lakers attempted 23 more free throws than the Warriors (29-6).
Lakers vs. Warriors Game 2 odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting odds for the Lakers vs. the Warriors Game 2 as of 12:10 p.m. ET Thursday, May 4 from DraftKings.
'Zig-Zag' Theory
This is a basketball/team sports betting strategy when you bet the opposite side in a rematch. The logic is simple: It's hard to beat the same team twice in consecutive games.
Generally, this strategy is used for betting sides and not totals. Since 2020, home favorites are 13-1 straight up (SU) and 12-2 against the spread (ATS). But, the totals are 6-8 Over/Under (O/U) as well.
A lot of NBA talking heads will pick the Warriors to tie this series before heading back to LA for Game 3. If I had to play a side, I'd lay the points with Golden State too.
Curry shoots a 3-pointer during Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals at Chase Center in San Francisco. (Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images)
I'd prefer to fire up the zig-zag theory for the UNDER since I didn't like what I saw from the Warriors offensively. They couldn't do anything in the paint in Game 1, Curry shot 41.7% from the field and Klay hit 36.0% of his shots.
Furthermore, this is a ...
'Pros vs. Joe's' Game
Game 2's total opened at 227.5 and lowered down to 227 at DraftKings. More money at DraftKings is on the UNDER whereas more bets are on the Over.
So DraftKings is moving the total in accordance with the sharps, not the public. Maybe DK is seeing what I'm seeing, which is ...
The Warriors 'D' up at home
Golden State's offensive rating was 8th during the regular season and 12th defensively, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). The Dubs' defensive rating is much stronger at home: 3rd at home and 28th on the road.
This is backed by the O/U trends for the Warriors. They are 18-25-2 O/U at home this season with a -3.2 O/U margin. Golden State's defense responds to losses: The Dubs are 1-5 O/U after their last six losses.
Also ...
'Styles Make Fights'
Both teams did a great job protecting the rock in Game 1. Golden State's turnover rate (TOV%) was 6.9% and LAL's offensive TOV% was 7.1%. The average TOV% in these playoffs is 11.9%.
The ball security should carry over to Game 2 because trying to force turnovers in basketball is a gamble. If you go for a turnover and miss, defenses will be out of place leading to open shots.
LeBron James operates out of the triple-threat against Warriors SF Andrew Wiggins during Game 1. (Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images)
Golden State doesn't force a lot of turnovers in the first place. The Warriors want to get back on D to protect the basket vs. an aggressive Lakers offense. LAL won't gamble on defense in fear of the Dubs getting wide-open 3s.
Both teams have below-average wide-open 3-point-attempt rates in these playoffs albeit for different reasons. Golden State is a perimeter-oriented offense and the Lakers don't have a lot of 3-point shooters.
Moreover, there could be a ...
Fatigue Factor in Game 2
Not only did the Warriors play a grueling 7-game series in the 1st round but this is Golden State's 4th game in the past six nights. The Dubs played a fast-paced style vs. the Kings and a physical Game 1 vs. the Lakers.
Curry looks tired and mad during Game 1 of Lakers-Warriors at Chase Center. (Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images)
Davis played nearly 44 minutes in Game 1 and LeBron James played 40 minutes. AD told reporters how important it was for LAL to steal Game 1. Now that the Lakers accomplished that mission this could be a natural let-down game.
With that in mind, if this game becomes a blowout in the 2nd-half, I could see both teams taking their feet off the gas. We saw this in Game 2 of the 76ers-Celtics series Wednesday.
BET: UNDER 227 in Lakers vs. Warriors Game 2, down to 226
Odds for the UNDER in Lakers-Warriors Game 2 from DraftKings.
PS Player Prop: Lakers big Anthony Davis points prop (26.5)
The UNDER being more expensive suggests DraftKings is trying to steer bettors into betting the Over. The sportsbooks aren't our friends so this feels like a "trap line".
More importantly, Davis is the defensive anchor of the Lakers and could spend less energy on offense. If AD has an off-game defensively, LAL is going to get cooked most nights.
Plus, Golden State has one of the best defensive front-courts in the NBA. Draymond Green is an all-time defender and Warriors C Kevon Looney is a vastly underrated paint protector.
Anthony Davis posts up Draymond Green during the 4th quarter in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinal Playoffs. (Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
If the Dubs are going to win this series, Draymond and Looney need to minimize the damage Davis does. I think they'll be up to it since this is a back-against-the-wall game for the Warriors.
AD has scored more than 22 points in three of his seven games in these playoffs. After putting up 31 in Game 3 against the Grizzlies in the 1st round, Davis scored just 12.
Davis followed up a 31-point effort in Game 5 with 16 in LAL's series-clinching victory vs. Memphis last round.