The Rematch: Iowa Vs. LSU Part II, Elite Eight Prediction
Imagine if Magic Johnson and Larry Bird played another year of college hoops at their respective schools, Michigan State and Indiana State, and there was a rematch of the 1979 NCAA men's title game. That's what we have Monday, April 1st when 3-seed LSU Tigers (31-5) face 1-seed Iowa Hawkeyes (32-4) in the Elite Eight of the 2024 Women's NCAA Tournament. In this analogy, Iowa superstar Caitlin Clark is the Bird, and LSU All-American Angel Reese is the Magic.
For obvious reasons.
Clark is an offensive wizard who can shoot from anywhere on the floor, which makes her almost underrated as a distributor and playmaker. Caitlin averages the most points (31.7) and assists (8.9) per game nationally. Reese, like Magic, does a little bit of everything exceptionally well. Angel leads LSU in points (18.7) and rebounds (13.2) per game and ranks second in the SEC in Player Efficiency Rating.
READ: Iowa Vs. LSU Tickets Are Surprisingly Cheap
Last year's Iowa-LSU women's national championship took the sports world by storm. The Tigers pummeled the Hawkeyes 102-85, leading to the infamous "Can't see me" gesture made by Reese in Clark's direction. Caitlin's 30 points and 8 assists in that game weren't enough as LSU easily won the "battle for possessions". The Tigers had 14 more field goal attempts by winning the rebounds 32-24 and committing five fewer turnovers.
This leads me to my first factor here: LSU should win the "battle for possessions" again. The Tigers throw 4.4 fewer turnovers than their opponents per game and grab 12.5 more rebounds per game. The Hawkeyes turn the ball over slightly less than their foes (14.5-13.9 per game) and have a +7.4 per-game margin on the glass. OutKick's Indiana Basketball Hall of Famers Dan Dakich and Patricia Babcock McGraw would confirm that hoops at the highest level is about the "battle for possessions".
Another reason why I like LSU's spread (+2 as of 11:15 a.m. ET Monday) is the Tigers can survive a bad game from Reese while Iowa needs Clark to go off. Besides Reese, LSU has four rotation players averaging double-digits. This includes Aneesah Morrow (16.5 PPG), Flau'jae Johnson (14.7 PPG), Mikaylah Williams (14.4 PPG), and Hailey Van Lith (11.7 PPG). Reese and Morrow are All-SEC First Team, Johnson is on the Second Team, and Williams is the 2024 SEC Rookie of the Year.
LSU Tigers' Hailey Von Lith high-fives teammate Aneesah Morrow vs. the UCLA Bruins in the Sweet Sixteen of the 2024 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament at MVP Arena in Albany, New York. (Greg Fiume/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)
Also, the hype surrounding Iowa-LSU will bring a ton of betting action. Since Clark is the biggest superstar in women's hoops history, I'm assuming most of the public will bet the Hawkeyes. Especially, at a reasonably cheap price. This game could be the first time that a fading the public handicapping angle could work in a women's college basketball game. Everyone wants Clark to finish off her immaculate college career. Yet, betting against people's wishes is generally profitable in this racket.
READ: Washington Post Drops Mega Piece On LSU Coach Kim Mulkey, And It's Much Ado About Not That Much
Finally, LSU has a coaching edge. Regardless of how you feel about Tigers coach Kim Mulkey, she's one of the best college coaches ever. Personally, I think Mulkey sucks. She dresses like Elton John and went scorched earth about a Washington Post feature that wasn't that bad. Plus, Mulkey treated my co-worker Glenn Guilbeau poorly and Glenn is my dude. But, she is a 4-time NCAA D-1 national champion and 3-time AP Coach of the Year.
More importantly, Mulkey has a more talented team.
'Pizza Bet' (since I don't know anything about women's hoops): LSU Tigers +2 at DraftKings
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