THE PLAYERS Championship 2024 Picks To Win, One-And-Done
Despite losing money both times I've bet this event, THE PLAYERS Championship 2024 is one of my favorite tournaments on the PGA TOUR. Aside from the four majors, THE PLAYERS has the toughest field this season with 144 golfers teeing it up at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. Golf's "fifth major" has a $20 million prize pool with the winner walking away with $4.5 million.
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Reigning PLAYERS champion, and World No. 1, Scottie Scheffler looks to become the first golfer to win this event in back-to-back seasons. I got Scheffler'd last week at the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational (API). One of my picks to win — Wyndham Clark — finished solo-second, five strokes behind Scottie. The only good thing about Scheffler winning the Arnold Palmer was I used him in my One-and-Done league. Otherwise, my Arnold Palmer sucked.
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I profited from Clark finishing second, but my other five picks choked. Sam Burns ejected from the API Sunday. Cameron Young, Keegan Bradley, and Taylor Moore were never in contention. Jake Knapp's Arnold Palmer ended when he shot a 12 on Hole No. 6 Saturday. I did cash both head-to-head bets, so that's something. Ultimately, I lost -3.83 units (u) at the API and my PGA TOUR 2024 bankroll is -19.09u.
Not ideal. Anyways. Onward and upward. Good, ole Pete Dye designed this course. Instead of my regurgitating golf nerds' intel about TPC Sawgrass, I'll just insert the hard work from Betsperts' golf guru Ron Klos and a sweet course breakdown from Golf Digest.
My gambling strategy is to profit 20u for every outright golf winner bet. I'll back that golfer in a placement market (top-5, -10, or -20 finishes) because I'd be sick to my stomach if one of my guys finished inside the top five and I didn't profit. Is this the right way to bet golf? I don't know. Regardless, shop around for placement bets because most legal U.S. sportsbooks apply "dead heat" rules for ties.
THE PLAYERS Championship 2024 ‘Horses for the Course’
Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies, Fantasy National by Pat Mayo, and the PGA Tour.
Justin Thomas
After a disappointing 2022-23 season on TOUR, JT looks like the JT of old. Thomas missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational but rebounded with a T12 at the API last week. His other finishes this season are a T3 at the American Express, a T6 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (a "signature event"), and a T12 at the WM Phoenix Open.
Thomas has made the cut in all eight starts at THE PLAYERS including a win in 2021. He's gained strokes off-the-tee (OTT) and tee-to-green (T2G) in seven of eight starts at TPC Sawgrass. JT lost 4.9 strokes on the greens last year and still finished T66 at THE PLAYERS.
Justin Thomas celebrates after winning The Players Championship 2021 at TPC Sawgrass. (Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)
Lastly, Thomas is 2nd in my power rankings built with Fantasy National's model. The data includes key stats for TPC Sawgrass, recent form, course history, performance at crossover courses, and total strokes gained (SG) in difficult scoring conditions.
The first thoroughbred for TPC Sawgrass: Justin Thomas
- Win: +2200 at DraftKings (0.91u to win 20u)
- Top-10: +220 at BetMGM (0.59u to win 1.3u)
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Hideki Matsuyama
The 2021 Masters champion is in great form and plays well at TPC Sawgrass. Matsuyama was in the mix at last week's API, his first start after winning the Genesis Invitational, a "signature event" on TOUR. His second-best round ever by Strokes Gained (+8.59) was at THE PLAYERS in 2016 when he finished T7. Last year at TPC Sawgrass, Hideki shot 12-under par on the weekend to finish solo-fifth.
Matsuyama picked up strokes T2G in eight of his nine career starts at TPC Sawgrass. In 2020, Hideki shot a course record 63 in the first round of THE PLAYERS and held a two-stroke lead. But, the COVID pandemic took over that Friday and the PGA Tour canceled the rest of the tournament.
Hideki Matsuyama plays from the pine straw on the 18th fairway during THE PLAYERS Championship (David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports)
It’s harder to hit the Green-in-Regulation and to Scramble at this course, which emphasizes ARG-play. Hideki is a wizard around the greens. He’s fourth in SG: Around-the-Green (ARG) on the PGA TOUR this season. Matsuyama has gained 10.3 strokes ARG in back-to-back starts at the WM Phoenix Open and Genesis Invitational.
The second thoroughbred for TPC Sawgrass: Hideki Matsuyama
- Win: +4000 at FanDuel (0.5u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +138 at BetMGM (1u to win 1.38u)
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Shane Lowry
I'm going to play Lowry while he's on this heater. The 2019 Champion Golfer of the Year finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic 2024 two weeks ago. Lowry was in a three-way tie for the 54-hole lead entering the final round and the favorite to win. Last week, Shane finished solo-third at the API and played in the final group with Scheffler Sunday.
Lowry has made the cut in four of the last five PLAYERS, highlighted by T13 in 2022 and solo-eighth the year before. Finally, Lowry is in great form. The Irishman is 10th in total SG on TOUR this season, fifth in SG: Approach (APP), eighth in driving accuracy, and third in Par 4 birdies or better.
The third thoroughbred for TPC Sawgrass: Shane Lowry
- Win: +4000 at FanDuel (0.5u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +150 at BetMGM (1u to win 1.5u)
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Sungjae Im
Frankly, Im's 2024 stats don't justify this pick and it's just a "value bet". Besides his T18 at last week's API, Sungjae's only other top-20 finish this season was a T5 at the Sentry in January where he set a PGA TOUR record for birdies. Im has won in Florida before (The Honda Classic in 2020) and plays well at TPC Sawgrass. Sungjae finished T6 last year and T17 in 2021 with a T55 sandwiched in between.
Sungjae Im lines up his putt during the second round of The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. (Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)
The South Korean ranks 132nd on TOUR this season in SG: APP. But, Sungjae is solid throughout the bag and his iron-play will pick up. Historically, Im scores on Par 5s. That speaks to his ability to use every club in the bag. He ranked 3rd in Par 5 scoring on Tour last season and 19th in 2021-22. Scoring on Par 5s and saving par is the recipe for success at TPC Sawgrass. More importantly, Sungjae has juicy odds to win THE PLAYERS. We can get Sungae at 80-to-1 this year and he was 35-to-1 last year.
The fourth thoroughbred for TPC Sawgrass: Sungjae Im
- Win: +8000 at FanDuel (0.25u to win 20u)
- Top-20 +200 at BetMGM (0.75u to win 1.5u)
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Keith Mitchell
You need at least one 100-to-1 longshot on your betting card this season on TOUR. Six of the 10 events in 2024 have been won by a 100-to-1 longshot or greater. Mitchell ranks third on my 30-round model, courtesy of Bet The Number. He is eighth in SG: OTT, 11th in SG: APP, and seventh in Par 5 scoring over that span.
Keith Mitchell hits his tee shot on the 12th hole in the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Hawaii. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, Mitchell has "true win equity." His only PGA TOUR victory was The Honda Classic in 2019 at another tough Florida course, PGA National. This season, Cashmere Keith has two top-10s at The American Express (T9) and Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches (T9). He has two more top-20s in Phoenix (T17) and Mexico Open (T19).
The fifth thoroughbred for TPC Sawgrass: Keith Mitchell
- Win: +10000 at FanDuel (0.2u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +300 at BetMGM (0.4u to win 1.2u)
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THE PLAYERS Championship 2024 One-And-Done Pick: Hideki Matsuyama
While I'm butt-hurt that Scottie beat Wyndham last week, at least I banked $4 million on Scheffler at the API. Through the first nine events of the 2024 Mayo Cup (the One-And-Done contest I entered this season), I'm tied for 237th out of 4,400 entries with $5,461,494 collected. If my one-and-done league ended today, I would've profited $400 on my $200 entry.
Previous Picks
- J.T. Poston for the Sony Open: 6th for $300,875
- Xander Schauffele for the American Express: T3 for $635,600
- Sahith Theegala for the Farmers Insurance Open: T64 for $19,080
- Jordan Spieth for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T39 for $70,125
- Tom Kim for the WM Phoenix Open: T17 for $125,400
- Collin Morikawa for the Genesis Invitational: T19 for $251,400
- Taylor Pendrith for the Mexico Open: Missed cut for $0
- Tom Hoge for the Cognizant Classic: T28 for $59,014
- Scottie Scheffler for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: 1st for $4,000,000
Hideki Matsuyama celebrates after winning The Genesis Invitational at Riveria Country Club. (Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports)
I'm going with Hideki instead of JT as a "game theory" play in the contest. Thomas will be one of the most popular golfers in the pool since he's the 2021 PLAYERS champion. I plan on using him at the Wells Fargo or PGA Championships. JT is a two-time PGA Championship winner. The 2017 PGA Championship is at Quail Hollow, which hosts the Wells Fargo. The 2024 PGA Championship is at Valhalla Golf Club in Thomas's hometown, Louisville, Kentucky.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.