The Masters 2024 Odds Reset, One Head-To-Head Bet For 'Moving Day'
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is in a three-way tie atop The Masters 2024 Leader Board with a score of 6-under par. Scheffler is joined by LIV Tour defector, and 2020 U.S. Open champion, Bryson DeChambeau and 6-time PGA TOUR winner, but not a major champion, Max Homa. This is golf-gambling Twitter's worst nightmare. Since Scheffler had pre-tournament odds of +450 to win, I didn't see people touting the 2022 Masters champion.
But, here we are. Non-Scheffler bettors, myself included, are resigned to rooting for his wife to go into labor and force him to withdraw. DeChambeau, Homa, and Scottie were among the few golfers who didn't get crushed by the high wind speeds at Augusta National Golf Club Friday. Ludvig Åberg's 2nd-round 69 (-3) was the best of the day, putting him at 3-under for the tournament, good for solo 7th.
Scottie Scheffler walks across the No. 11 green during the 2nd round of The Masters 2024 at Augusta National Golf Club. (Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Network)
Due to everyone getting killed on this course Friday, the cut-line moved to 6-over par, which might be the worst I've seen in my three-plus years betting on PGA TOUR golf. The 2nd round couldn't have gone much worse for me. Two of my three head-to-head matchups have already lost and three of my seven picks to win The Masters missed the cut, including my one-and-done pick, Wyndham Clark.
With this in mind, I'm not exactly champing at the bit to invest more money in The Masters, aka the Scottie Scheffler Invitational. Since most legal U.S. sportsbooks apply "dead heat" rules to mid-tournament placement bets, there isn't much value in those markets either.
Masters 2024 Odds Entering Round 3, Saturday
The weather forecast is predicting fairly calm conditions for Moving Day at The Masters. Saturday's wind report for Augusta, Georgia is projecting 10 mph speeds with 20 mph wind gusts, according to the Apple Weather app. That's calmer than Friday when winds touched 20 mph speeds with gusts in the mid-40s.
If Saturday's weather conditions were similar to Friday's and Scheffler weren't the 36-hole leader, I'd be more eager to take a shot with a golfer 6+ strokes back. Instead, I'm going to "keep my powder dry" for the live outright markets and going with a 3rd-round head-to-head bet.
Cameron Young (+100) over Tommy Fleetwood
Young and Fleetwood are paired together in Group #29 and tee off at roughly 2:05 p.m. ET Saturday. They are in a seven-way tie for 8th place entering Moving Day at The Masters with scores of 1-under par.
According to DataGolf.com, Young is +2.18 Strokes Gained (SG): Ball-Striking (BS) per round and Fleetwood is +1.48 SG: BS. Augusta is considered a "ball striker's paradise" and is one of the longest courses on TOUR. Young is a bomber while Fleetwood is a short-game specialist.
Cameron Young hits a wedge shot at the 13th hole Saturday in The Masters 2024 at Augusta. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Network)
Furthermore, Young is gaining strokes in the five most important golf stats, such as off-the-tee, approach (APP), around-the-green, tee-to-green, and putting. If I didn't bet Young to win The Masters pre-tournament, I'd take a shot on him entering the 3rd round. This is Young's 3rd Masters start and he seems to be figuring out these greens at Augusta.
Finally, APP play is the most predictive stat in golf. Over their last 32 rounds, Young is 17th in this field for SG: APP and 4th in APP shots +175 yards out. Fleetwood is 71st in SG: APP and 67th in APP shots 175+ yards out. Because Augusta is such a long course, golfers need to hit their long irons well to contend at The Masters. Young has a huge edge over Fleetwood with their long irons.
Bet a half-unit on Cameron Young to beat Tommy Fleetwood in a 3rd-round matchup at DraftKings (+100)
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Other Masters 2024 Content
OutKick's Pick 'Em For Masters 2024: 'The Augusta Golf Challenge'
The Masters 2024 Outright Bets, One-And-Done Pick: Hideki, Justin Thomas
Masters 2024 'Top Player' Bets For Finishing Positions
Rory McIlroy Holds Incredibly Short Masters Press Conference In What Seems To Be Another Preparation Shakeup
The Masters 2024 Tournament Matchups Bets: Rahm-Xander, JT-Morikawa, DJ-Bryson
Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns Would Withdraw From Masters If Their Very Pregnant Wives Go Into Labor
Jon Rahm Loses It As Tyrrell Hatton Explains His Caddie Fell Over At Dinner Forcing Him Out Of The Masters
Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.