The Fight Analyst: UFC 264 Betting Guide
The last and final installment of the rivalry between two of the greatest fighters to ever step into the octagon is finally among us. Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor will once and for all settle the score to see who is the better man this weekend at UFC 264. This event is littered with top-notch competitors and is going to be one for the record books. With that said, let's dig deep into the odds.
Sean O'Malley (-950) vs Kris Moutinho (+590)
We kick things off on the main card with a fight in the bantamweight division between the rising star "Suga" Sean O'Malley and the promotional newcomer who's taking this fight on just 10 days notice Kris Moutinho. O'Malley’s original opponent Louis Smolka had to withdraw due to a staph infection. Nonetheless, this should be a dog fight and a great one to start the main card.
Sean O'Malley looked like his old self coming off of his last win against Thomas Almeida. His striking and movement were fluid and he was almost untouchable out there. He has done a better job at avoiding and checking calf kicks after his debacle with Marlon Vera and that will come in handy against Kris Moutinho. This is O'Malley’s fight to lose as long as he doesn't get overconfident in there, as he should make quick work in this one.
Kris Moutinho is coming into his promotional debut off of two consecutive wins inside the distance. He trains with the likes of Rob Font and Calvin Kattar so we know he comes in with a chip on his shoulder and toughness to boot. He's going to have to go in there and make this a gritty fight to overcome the odds and pull off the massive upset.
This fight is tailor-made for O'Malley to showcase his skills. Even though Moutinho is as tough as they come he tends to leave his head on the center line and gets tagged as he marches forward. That will be a recipe for disaster against the kind of striker he will be facing against O'Malley. Expect Moutinho to be the aggressor and to push the pace but get caught in the process and O'Malley puts him out early in round 1.
The Pick: Sean O'Malley (-950)
Irene Aldana (-122) vs Yana Kunitskaya (+100)
We get a striker's delight in the women's bantamweight division between #4 Irene Aldana and #5 Yana Kunitskaya. These two are fighting to get into title contention which will make for a great matchup.
Irene Aldana is coming off of a tough loss at the hands of Holly Holm as her grappling was deemed too much for her. Good thing for Aldana is that Yana Kunitskaya is a striker by trade. Aldana has shown that her striking is some of the division's best in her fight against Ketlen Vieira. If she is able to keep this fight at range and not let Kunitskaya control her inside the clinch against the cage she should walk away with one.
Yana Kunitskaya is coming off of a controversial decision win by Ketlen Vieira. She was controlled on the mat for over 10 minutes in a 15-minute fight but yet all 3 judges scored it for her. Kunitskaya is a high-level muay Thai striker that likes to use her kicks to keep her opponents at range and use knees and elbows in the clinch to do damage. Her best bet to get the win against Aldana is to use her strength to keep Aldana clinched up against the cage rather than to fight her at range.
Aldana vs Kunitskaya is an evenly matched fight between two tough competitors. Aldana seems to be the more efficient striker of the two and since this fight will primarily be fought on the feet you can expect Aldana to use her length to keep Kunitskaya at the end of her strikes. The output will pile on for Aldana to get back into the win column.
The Pick: Irene Aldana (-120)
Tai Tuivasa (-142) vs Greg Hardy (+116)
In the Heavyweight division, we have a scrap between two heavy hitters in Tai Tuivasa and Greg Hardy. It takes just one punch from either of these two to get the win, so keep your eyes glued to the screen or you might miss it all!
Tai Tuivasa is in top form coming off of back-to-back first-round knockouts. This is a step up in competition over his last two opponents in Greg Hardy but one that he can overcome. Tuivasa will need to use his quickness to get on the inside of the reach of Hardy to land his power shots to put him away.
Greg Hardy coming off of a tough loss to the surging Marcin Tybura. Hardy has shown that his grappling is still not at the highest level just yet. Hardy still has the rare athleticism that you don't see in the Heavyweight division. He's going to need to utilize his length and athleticism to keep away from the cage and punish Tuivasa as he closes the distance to get back into the win column.
We have yet to see the grappling progress that Tuivasa has made since making the change to American Kickboxing Academy. It would be smart for him to mix in the takedowns because we have seen the struggles from Hardy in that department. Tuivasa is a more seasoned fighter with a higher skill-set, more ways to win and he will put all of his tools together to become victorious this weekend.
The Pick: Tai Tuivasa (-142)
Stephen Thompson (-154) vs Gilbert Burns (+126)
This one of the most intriguing fights on the fight card next to the main event. Two of the Welterweight's best square off in hopes to get back into title contention between #2 Gilbert Burns and #4 Stephen Thompson.
Stephen Thompson has looked in his best form rattling off back-to-back wins against Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal. Thompson has some of the best striking in not just the Welterweight division but in the entire UFC. Thompson knows coming into this fight with Burns that he is going to need to keep his distance and defend any takedown attempts that will come his way. If he is able to do just that he could put on a striking clinic in this matchup.
This is Gilbert Burns' first fight since losing his title fight to Kamaru Usman. His fight with Usman was the first time he's been knocked out since the move up to the Welterweight division. He's going to need to be cautious having a striking match with Thompson. It would be in his best interest to take this fight to the mat any way possible which is where he has all the advantages in the world.
Thompson comes into this fight never being submitted in his entire professional career and he hasn't been taken down since his title fights against Tyron Woodley. Expect Thompson to be a hard puzzle to solve for Burns and have his way with Burns on the feet and get one step closer to another title fight.
The Pick: Stephen Thompson (-154)
Dustin Poirier (-122) vs Conor McGregor (+100)
The very last installment of the trilogy between Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor will be one for the record books. Both fighters come into this fight with 1 win apiece with both beating each other by knockout. You can expect a high-octane fight that will go down as one of the best trilogies in UFC history.
Dustin Poirier comes into this fight during his prime at age 32 years old. Since moving to the Lightweight division Poirier has amassed an 11-2-1 record and claimed the interim Lightweight championship. He had the perfect game plan and execution in the rematch against McGregor back in January. Poirier made him work early, mixing in takedowns and brutalizing his lead leg which hindered his movement. This time around he will need to be more cautious when in range because he was hit with some hard counters in their last encounter. Poirier will need to keep mixing things up especially the takedowns and if he is able to do that as well as weather the early storm of McGregor he can pull off the biggest win of his career.
Conor McGregor, now deemed the wealthiest sports figure in the world is set to compete at the highest level in the trilogy fight against Dustin Poirier. He comes into this fight as the betting underdog for only the second time of his UFC career. The only other time he was an underdog was when he faced off against Khabib Nurmagomedov. McGregor didn’t seem to be his normal self in his last encounter with Poirier as he seemed stiff, flat-footed, and used primarily his boxing instead of using his kicks to set up his punches. We should see a much better version of McGregor this time out having 6 months to prepare for this one. He is going to need to get back to what made him so dangerous and that was his quickness on the feet and using those kicks to set up his laser left hand just like he did against Poirier in their very first fight back in 2014. If he is able to do that, he will get his hand raised and be right back in the title talks against Charles Oliveira.
There is a reason why this fight is lined so closely on the sportsbooks. There are so many intangibles that it is hard to pinpoint what the outcome will be in this last and final fight. With that said, it is hard to go against Poirier right now as he is in the best form that we have seen him in. For McGregor, his only win in the last 4 years was against Donald Cerrone who everyone knows has fallen off of a cliff career-wise. Poirier is going to eat some big shots early on in this contest but ultimately will be able to weather that early barrage of strikes and drown McGregor as the fight progresses.
The Pick: Dustin Poirier (-122)*
Value Bets
Brad Tavares (-165)
Brad Tavares has been a staple in the Middleweight division for a while now. He is coming off of arguably his best performance in quite some time against Antonio Carlos Junior. Tavares has shown stout takedown defense, defending 79% of takedowns attempted against him and he will need that against his opposition Omari Akhmedov. He will be able to defend the onslaught of takedowns from Akhmedov which will result in a depleted gas tank and then drown Akhmedov with combinations and calf kicks to take a clear cut unanimous decision.
Sean O’Malley wins in round 1 (+115)
Sean O’Malley has a ton of hype coming into this fight after an absolute beatdown against Thomas Almeida which landed him a highlight-reel knockout in round 3. This is a massive step up in competition on such short notice for Moutinho who has gone only 2-2 in his last 4 fights and in both of those 2 losses he was finished by knockout. O’Malley will be looking to add Moutinho to another highlight-reel knockout and you can expect it to come early in this one.
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