THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2024 Best Bets, One-And-Done Pick
Taking last week off from the PGA TOUR was nice because I've been getting crushed betting on golf this season. It was the Zurich Classic of New Orleans last week, a 2-golfer team event, and I only bet on full-field, 72-hole stroke-play tournaments. Well, the TOUR returns to its bread and butter this week with THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2024 at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.
Jason Day, No. 22 in the Official World Golf Rankings, is the 2nd-highest ranked player in the field behind Jordan Spieth (No. 20). Since there are back-to-back big-boy events (2024 Wells Fargo and PGA Championships) after this tournament, several big names are skipping the Byron Nelson. Thankfully, Texan Scottie Scheffler isn't playing this week. Every time Scheffler wins, I lose because his odds are too low and I'm a sucker.
Jason Day poses with the trophy after winning the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. (Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports)
Scottie's recent dominance is a big reason I'm -37.62 units (u) entering the Byron Nelson. The other reasons are bad bankroll management and betting at too high of a volume. With that in mind, I'm at a crossroads with my PGA TOUR gambling. I'm reducing my exposure slightly instead of backing every outright pick with a finishing position bet to stop these leaks.
Regardless, I will continue betting on golf because that's just what I do. Aside from the PGA TOUR, the 2024 NBA Playoffs are the only sports bets I'm making currently. Let's get into my outrights, placement bets, and my one-and-done pick for the 2024 Byron Nelson. (Only make "finishing position" bets at BetMGM since it doesn't apply "dead heat" rules).
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2024 Betting Card
Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies and the PGA Tour.
Picks To Win
The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks as of 1:30 p.m. ET Tuesday, April 30th.
Adam Schenk (+4000)
The Boilermaker's game is in a great place entering this week. He is +0.44 Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-tee (OTT), +0.21 Approach (APP), +0.25 Around-the-Green (ARG) and +0.30 Putting over his last five starts. All five of those tournaments were at much tougher courses. They include THE PLAYERS (T19), the Valspar Championship (T33), Valero (T5), The Masters (T12), and RBC Heritage (T49).
Adam Schenk hits from the 2nd cut on Hole No. 2 during the 1st round of the 2024 Masters. (Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Network)
Last year, Schenk missed the cut here. He missed another cut in the 2019 Byron Nelson and a T34 in 2021 is his best finish in five Byron Nelsons. But, I’m willing to give Schenk a mulligan. The 2023 Byron Nelson was scheduled in between the Wells Fargo and PGA Championships. Plus, Schenk was coming off a disappointing solo 2nd at the 2023 Valspar Championship. In this weak field, Adam’s strong form takes precedence ahead of his poor course history.
BET 0.5u on Adam Schenk to win 20u at BetMGM (+4000)
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Keith Mitchell (+4000)
I’ve never won money on Mitchell and I probably won’t at the 2024 Byron Nelson either. Yet, his ball-striking is too good to pass up at this price and in this weak field. I loaded my 40-round model at Bet The Number with ball-striking stats. Of course, Mitchell is 1st in my 2024 Byron Nelson power rankings.
Cashmere Keith is 4th in this field for SG: OTT over the last 40 rounds, 4th in SG: APP, and 9th in APP shots from 200+ yards out. Like all the golfers I bet, Mitchell sucks on the greens. However, Bentgrass is his best putting surface. Over the last 20 rounds on Bentgrass, he is 34th in SG: Putting. Mitchell can score and is in good form.
Keith Mitchell lines up a putt on the 2nd green during the 3rd round of the 2024 Valspar Championship. (Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports)
He is 14th in Birdie-or-Better (BoB) rate over the last 40 rounds and 11th in total SG over the last 20, according to Bet The Number. Maybe he can end his winning drought at the Byron Nelson like Day last year. Mitchell’s only win on TOUR was The Honda Classic in 2019. Day’s 2023 Byron Nelson win came after a string of impressive performances.
Keith has six top-20 finishes on TOUR this season. He was T9 at The American Express, T17 at WM Phoenix Open, T19 at the Mexico Open, T9 at the Cognizant Classic, T17 at the Valspar, and T14 at the Valero. Again, he probably won't win the Byron Nelson this week. Yet, my numbers say Mitchell has value down to +2500. This tournament is filled with golfers who have cost me money. At least, Cashmere Keith has true "win equity".
BET 0.5u on Keith Mitchell to win 20u at BetMGM (+4000)
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Maverick McNealy
McNealy tied for 6th at the 2024 WM Phoenix Open and gained strokes in the five major golf metrics. I bring up Phoenix because the designer of TPC Craig Ranch, Tom Weiskopf, also designed TPC Scottsdale. McNealy’s APP-play is currently his biggest weakness. He is 126th in SG: APP on TOUR this season.
But, Maverick is good throughout the rest of the bag and there are "many ways to skin a cat" at TPC Craig Ranch. He has a fantastic short-game. McNealy is 22nd in SG: ARG on TOUR this season and the best putter in this field over the last 20 rounds on Bentgrass greens. Maverick is 29th in SG: OTT and 12th in BoB rate when "Going for the Green", over the last 40 rounds.
Maverick McNealy plays an approach shot in the 1st round of the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. (Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)
The Stanford Cardinal is 5th in this field for total SG over the last 20 rounds and hasn’t missed a cut since The American Express. McNealy has never won on the PGA TOUR, but he has the game to take down the 2024 Byron Nelson.
BET 0.4u on Maverick McNealy to win 22u at BetMGM (+5500)
- I'm adding a top-20 bet on McNealy (+225) at BetMGM for 0.6u to profit 1.35u.
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Kevin Yu (+9000)
Yu is 8th in my Byron Nelson power rankings because he nukes the ball OTT. He is 1st in this field for SG: OTT, 14th in Ball Speed, and 8th in APP shots from 200+ yards out over the last 40 rounds, per Bet The Number. If Yu doesn’t putt himself out of contention, he can make some noise.
Kevin Yu hits his tee shot during the final round of the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open golf tournament at Torrey Pines in San Diego. (Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports)
The 25-year-old Arizona State graduate tied for 3rd at The American Express with a -27 score and T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open. Yu gained strokes with his putter in both of those events. I like Yu more for a top-20 bet than an outright wager. I’m sprinkling on him because his price fits into my Byron Nelson budget and I have a good feeling about Yu at TPC Craig Ranch.
BET 0.25u on Kevin Yu to win 22.5u at DraftKings (+9000)
- I'm adding a top-20 bet on Yu (+333) at BetMGM for 0.33u to profit 1u.
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Peter Kuest (+9000)
Kuest got into the Byron Nelson field with back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Valero Texas Open (T10) and Corales Puntacana Championship (T9). The 25-year-old BYU alum isn’t a full-time PGA TOUR pro, so his shot-link data is all over the place. However, Kuest has shown he is good OTT and with the flat-stick in his few PGA TOUR starts.
Over his last 24 rounds, Kuest hits the ball 20 yards further OTT than the average TOUR player and 11 mph harder and +0.72 SG per round on the greens, according to Bet The Number. At the Valero, Peter was +3.3 SG: T2G, +2.6 SG: OTT, and +3.9 SG: Putting.
Peter Kuest hits a tee shot on the first hole during the 2024 Valero Texas Open. (Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports)
TPC San Antonio (host of the Valero) is a challenging course. Whereas Puntacana Resort & Club is a "birdie fest" like the Byron Nelson. So, San Antonio toughed Kuest up and Puntacana sharpened his skills.
Finally, Kuest played well at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing T14 with a -17 score. He missed the cut at the Valero in his start before the 2023 Byron Nelson. I like Kuest’s chances more this year considering he is coming in with course experience and good form.
BET 0.25u on Peter Kuest to win 22.5u at DraftKings (+9000)
- I'm adding a top-20 bet on Kuest (+320) at BetMGM for 0.31u to profit 1u.
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Jake Knapp (+10000)
Knapp popped his PGA TOUR cherry by winning the 2024 Mexico Open in February. Since he’s mostly been bad except for a T4 finish at the Cognizant a week after his win in Mexico. Four of Knapp’s five starts since the Cognizant have been in "signature events" at difficult courses. The TOUR rookie only missed one cut over that span and it was at the non-"signature event", the Houston Open.
Also, TPC Craig Ranch is easier than Vidanta Vallarta, the host of the Mexico Open. Knapp can hammer the ball OTT here and his iron-play has been good all season. He is 18th in Total Driving and SG: APP, 8th in Club Head Speed, and 28th in APP shots from 200+ yards this season.
My "buy price" for Knapp at the Byron Nelson is +6000. His odds at the Mexico Open were +4000, but that was an easier field. There is a 90-to-1 at BetMGM, so I’m down to add one of "my guys" to my 2024 Byron Nelson betting card.
BET 0.25u on Jake Knapp to win 25u at BetMGM (+10000)
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Additional Finishing Position Bets
Again, make all placement bets at BetMGM since it doesn't apply "dead heat" rules.
Adam Scott Top-10 (+250): 0.5u to win 1.25u
The Aussie hasn’t won a PGA TOUR event since the 2020 Genesis Invitational. But, Scott has true win equity whereas most players in this non-"signature event" field don’t. Scott has 14 career wins on TOUR, including the 2013 Masters and the 2008 Byron Nelson at the TPC Four Seasons Resort. He won the 2010 Valero and 2007 Shell Houston Open in the Lone Star State.
Scott finished T8 with a -19 score in the 2023 Byron Nelson. Adam is 13th on TOUR this season in total driving, which accounts for distance and accuracy. Per Bet The Number, He is 17th in this field for SG: Putting over his last 20 rounds on Bentgrass. The Byron Nelson is a "birdie fest" and Scott is 19th in this field for BoB rate over the last 40 rounds.
Alex Noren Top-20 (+120): 1u to win 1.2u
The Swede hasn’t missed a cut since the 2023 Fortinet Championship in the FedExCup Fall schedule. Since then, Noren has nine top-25 finishes. Noren leads the field in total SG over the last 20 rounds with shot-link data, per Bet The Number. He finished T14 (Valero), T11 (Houston Open), T19 (THE PLAYERS), and T9 (Cognizant Classic) in four of his last five starts.
Alex Noren at the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
That said, I’ve done this song and dance with Noren before. He never wins but his numbers always look great. Noren has 11 international victories but none on the PGA TOUR. I’d rather take Noren to place in the top-20 because betting him to win is a waste of money.
Mark Hubbard Top-20 (+225): 0.5u to win 1.13u
Aside from his driving, Hubbard checks a lot of my boxes for the TPC Craig Ranch. Homeless Hubbs is 3rd in my 2024 Byron Nelson power rankings. Hubbard is 4th in this field for SG: APP over the last 40 rounds, 6th in APP shots from 200+ yards out, and 8th in BoB rate. Plus, Bentgrass is Hubbard's best putting surface and he hasn't missed a cut this season.
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THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2024 One-And-Done Pick: Adam Scott
My One-And-Done league used the Zurich Classic as a bye week. After the 15 events of the 2024 Mayo Cup. I'm tied for 1,494th out of 4,400 entries with $6,447,829 collected and I'm out of the money if the Mayo Cup ended today.
Previous Picks
- J.T. Poston for the Sony Open: 6th for $300,875
- Xander Schauffele for the American Express: T3 for $635,600
- Sahith Theegala for the Farmers Insurance Open: T64 for $19,080
- Jordan Spieth for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T39 for $70,125
- Tom Kim for the WM Phoenix Open: T17 for $125,400
- Collin Morikawa for the Genesis Invitational: T19 for $251,400
- Taylor Pendrith for the Mexico Open: Missed cut for $0
- Tom Hoge for the Cognizant Classic: T28 for $59,014
- Scottie Scheffler for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: 1st for $4,000,000
- Hideki Matsuyama for THE PLAYERS Championship: T6 for $875,000
- Min Woo Lee for the Valspar Championship: Missed cut for $0
- Keith Mitchell for the Houston Open: Missed cut for $0
- Corey Conners for the Valero Texas Open: T25 for $67,735
- Wyndham Clark for The Masters: Missed cut $0
- Cameron Young for the RBC Heritage: T62 for $43,600
Adam Scott reacts to a missed putt during The Masters 2024. (Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Network)
Adam Scott has one missed cut at the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Otherwise, he is having a good season. He’s finished T22 or better in The Masters, the Valero, the Genesis, and the Phoenix Open. If Scott plays well through the 1st two days, I'll live-bet him. Fellow Aussie, Day, snapped his drought by winning last year’s Byron Nelson. Maybe Scott can do the same this week.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.