Texas A&M Will Overpower Miami In Week 2: Odds, Picks, And Best Bets
The Miami Hurricanes (1-0) hosts the No. 23 Texas A&M Aggies (1-0) at the Hard Rock Stadium Saturday in Week 2 for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff. Last year, Texas A&M beat Miami 17-9 and covered as -6.5 home favorites.
Both beat the brakes off of their Week 1 foes. The 'Canes crushed Miami of Ohio 38-3 at home as 16.5-point favorites last week. While the Aggies covered -38.5 in a 52-10 rout of the New Mexico Lobos at home this past Saturday.
Texas A&M Aggies pass rusher Edgerrin Cooper hits Miami Hurricanes QB Tyler Van Dyke at Kyle in College Station, Texas. (Jack Gorman/Getty Images)
But, neither Week 1 victory was impressive enough to keep the heat off of these head coaches. Aggies head coach Jimbo Fisher has underwhelmed since taking over Texas A&M's football program in 2018. The Aggies were 5-7 last season and haven't appeared in an SEC championship in the Fisher era.
Miami also finished 5-7 in 2022 in head coach Mario Cristobal's 1st season at The U. Locals are so uninterested in the the Hurricanes they are selling "buy one, get one free deals" for this game with a matchup against Georgia Tech in early October.
Texas A&M at Miami Week 2 odds at PointsBet
My concern with backing the Aggies Saturday is it feels wrong to bet them as road favorites. However, Texas A&M is 7-3 ATS as road favorites since Fisher’s 1st year at College Station. Plus, Miami was 1-4 ATS last year as an underdog with a -9.3 ATS margin.
The question then becomes: Who improved more from last year? My answer is obviously Texas A&M. Per ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly, the Aggies ranked 7th in returning production. Plus, the Aggies have an alpha under center that I'm high on.
Texas A&M Aggies QB Conner Weigman vs. the New Mexico Lobos at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas. (Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports)
Aggies sophomore QB, and 5-star recruit, Conner Weigman is the best QB that Fisher has recruited while at Texas A&M. Weigman threw five TDs while completing 18-of-23 passes last week vs. New Mexico.
Also, this is a Pros vs. Joe's game in the betting market. According to Pregame.com, the public is nearly split on Texas A&M-Miami. But, roughly 60% of the money is on the Aggies as of Thursday evening.
These programs are mirror-images of each other but Texas A&M is further along and plays in the SEC. The Aggies had the best recruiting class in 2022. Most of those recruits stayed and are veterans now. Texas A&M is a legitimate threat to win the 2023 SEC West.
Both want to play physical and control the line of scrimmage. Well, the Aggies have more experience on the offensive line and a more talented front seven. Ultimately, Miami cannot match Texas A&M's physicality.
Furthermore, Circa Sports in Las Vegas opened Texas A&M as a 3-point road favorite in Miami. The Aggies' spread passing through the key number of -3.5 up to -4 at most shops is significant. Especially, considering Texas A&M is the road team.
That line movement confirms that the Hurricanes don't have much of a home-field edge. And, as OutKick's founder Clay Travis wisely said, the Aggies will have more fans in Miami than the U.
The bottom line is I make Texas A&M 4.5 points better than Miami on a neutral field. And the Aggies faithful might make pack out the Hard Rock for cheaper Texas A&M tickets Saturday.