Texans Will Handle Business Saturday At Colts In NFL Week 18
A playoff spot, and possibly the AFC South, is at stake when the Houston Texans (9-7) visit the Indianapolis Colts (9-7) Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium for an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff. The winner clinches a wild card berth and the division if the Jacksonville Jaguars lose to the Tennessee Titans Sunday in Week 18.
For the record, I know the Colts are the sharp play is here. But, I'm rolling with the public and betting the TEXANS (-120) to win outright or cover up to -2.5 should Houston become road favorites. Indy, as +1 underdogs, beat Houston 31-20 in Week 2.
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson runs for a TD vs. the Texans at NRG Stadium in Houston. (Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports)
However, the Texans faced both Colts quarterbacks that day instead of just Indianapolis QB Gardner Minshew II Saturday. Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson opened the game with two 1st-quarter rushing TDs from 18 and 15 yards out.
Richardson was pulled after Indy's next drive with a concussion and in came Minshew who torched Houston. Minshew completed 19-of-23 passes for 171 yards with 1 TD, 0 INT, and a 112.1 QB Rating. Yet, Minshew in mop-up duty vs. a week to prepare for Minshew is a different conversation.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts odds (BetMGM)
Ultimately, my reasons for liking Houston here are pretty straightforward. The Texans have the better quarterback and defense. Houston moved the ball against Indianapolis in Week 2. The Texans had five more 1st downs with nearly 10 more minutes of possession. They just went 1-for-4 in the red zone.
Houston rookie QB C.J. Stroud threw for 384 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INT in that game. Stroud did eat six sacks but that was his 2nd game in the NFL. He's certainly better at making pre-snap reads and avoiding costly sacks.
Indianapolis Colts DE Jacob Martin sacks Texans QB C.J. Stroud at NRG Stadium in NFL Week 2. (Perry Knotts/Getty Images)
With that in mind, Stroud is a lock to have a good game Saturday. He missed Weeks 15-16 with a concussion. But, Stroud returned last week and completed 75.0% of his passes in Houston's 26-3 win over the Titans.
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Stroud should get help from his ground game whereas Minshew won't. The Texans' defense is 1st in rushing success rate and 3rd in rushing EPA/play. Indianapolis's defense is 24th in rushing EPA/play and 26th in success rate.
Also, each week I'll pull key stats for all 32 NFL teams and rank teams by "net" efficiency. Well, Houston is better than Indy in net EPA/play, net yards per play, net early-down success rate, net pressure rate, net 3rd-down conversion rate, and net red-zone scoring rate.
Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud drops back to pass against the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium. (Perry Knotts/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the Texans just have a better roster. Give me Houston WR Nico Collins over any pass catcher Indy has. The Texans have a top-five linebacker (Blake Cashman), per Pro Football Focus. Two top-20 edge rushers (Will Anderson and Derek Barnett). And two top-25 cornerbacks (Derek Stingley Jr. and Steven Nelson).
Essentially, Houston is the better team and should win as long as they don't beat themselves. My biggest concern for the Texans are their lack of experience. That said, Stroud's big-game experience in college and his production thus far in the NFL puts my mind at ease.