Tested Dayton Should Be Favored Over Cincinnati

Cincinnati vs. Dayton, 8:30 ET

On a day where the College Football playoffs are starting, I'm sure most aren't even checking the hardwood. However, basketball is my first love and I always look there first. College has been fine, but the NBA has treated me like a dirty side piece for the past few weeks, and I keep going back like a stage-4 clinger. Rants and complaints aside, I am looking forward to getting a bit of action going in tonight's college slate. We have a top-25 matchup on tap, the only one of the weekend as Cincinnati takes on Dayton. 

Cincinnati comes into this game as the 19th-ranked team in the nation, sporting an 8-1 record. For the season, they've done a very nice job of holding opposing offenses down, allowing just under 60 points per game on average. The Bearcats haven't had a very tough schedule, as this is the first time that the team is facing a ranked opponent this year. They did beat Georgia Tech, Howard, and Xavier - all teams that usually have a pretty good team or a good program. Their one loss came at Villanova. I can't stress enough that teams going on the road do tend to struggle. I'm not sure that they would beat Villanova on a neutral court, but after losing by just eight, I think they would at least have a good shot at it. The team is led by senior guard, Simas Lukosius, who is averaging 16 points per game and shooting extremely well from deep. 

Cincinnati Bearcats guard Simas Lukosius (41) reacts to hitting a 3-point basket in the second half of the NCAA Basketball game at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati on Saturday, Dec. 14, 2024. Cincinnati Bearcats defeated Xavier Musketeers 68-65.

Dayton is one of those schools that you tend to hear about during the tournament but almost never throughout the rest of the year. This year's team could change that as they've already been making some waves. For the year, the Flyers are 10-2 with their losses both coming in the Thanksgiving tournament, falling to then-ranked North Carolina and Iowa State. They gave both of those teams a battle though, having lost to the Tar Heels by just two points, and falling to Iowa State by five. They were one of the three teams to beat UConn in that tournament, but I am not sure we should be overly impressed because of how poorly the Huskies played in that one. Last week, Dayton hosted #6 Marquette and took them down. They were able to win that one by eight points on their home court. They have a balanced team that can keep up with the Cincinnati offense, but will need to figure out how to approach the tough Bearcats defense. 

This is likely to be a close game, but I think it seems a bit silly that Cincinnati is the favorite here. They certainly haven't been tested as much as Dayton has. And, in most of those games that Dayton has played against tough opponents, they've done a great job of battling and in some cases winning. Dayton is not really at home here, despite being listed as the home team. The game is at Heritage Bank Center which is in Cincinnati. Most college students are on break right now anyway so I'm not as sure that this is a big boost for the Bearcats though. I'm going to back the Flyers and take the 3.5 points in this one.

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