Tennessee Will End Its Gainesville Curse Vs. Florida Saturday
The No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers (2-0) stops by Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville to play the host, Florida Gators (1-1) for a 7 p.m. ET kickoff. It was shocking to read from OutKick college football reporter Trey Wallace that Tennessee has lost 20 straight games in Gainesville.
Honestly, I'm not nearly as entrenched into SEC or college football as the OutKick readers. I grew up in upstate New York and went to St. John's University in Queens. St. John's doesn't have a football team and college football isn't popular in upstate NY.
UT beat Florida last season 38-33 in Knoxville but the Volunteers fell well short of covering as -11.5 home favorites. It was Tennessee's 1st victory under head coach Josh Heupel since he took over the football program in 2021.
The Tennessee Volunteers team celebrates in the stands with the fans after a win against the Florida Gators at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Donald Page/Getty Images)
But, maybe my lack of familiarity with UT's Gainesville curse will be an advantage here. When you remove the recent Tennessee-Florida history, the Vols are clearly the right side. UT has the better QB, coach and defense.
Tennessee ranks better than Florida in recruiting (according to On3.com) and returns more production from last year's team. The Gators lost their top-five tacklers from 2022, three of their top-four WRs and QB Anthony Richardson went to the NFL.
Tennessee at Florida Week 3 odds (PointBet)
Both programs have different starting QBs this season. Vols 6th-year senior QB Joe Milton has never thrown an interception since transferring to Tennessee in 2021. Florida 5th-year senior QB Graham Mertz transferred from Wisconsin. Mertz never quite lived up to the hype of his 4-star high school rating.
When former UT QB Hendon Hooker went out with an injury last year, Milton led the Vols to a 56-0 beatdown of Vanderbilt in their regular-season finale and a 31-14 upset over Clemson in the Orange Bowl. In fact, Milton had a better QB Rating than Hooker last year.
Volunteers QB Joe Milton fakes a handoff to RB Jabari Small vs. the Austin Peay Governors at Neyland Stadium. (Eakin Howard/Getty Images)
Finally, the public is buying the "Tennessee's Gainesville curse" narrative. Per Pregame.com, more than 70% of the money is on Florida +5.5 as of Saturday afternoon.
There's a saying in sports betting that goes, "Public 'dogs get slaughtered". Since the public loves betting favorites, it's rare for sportsbooks to "need" the favorite to cover.