What To Expect From The 2024 Tennessee Titans In Year One Of Post-Mike Vrabel Era
NFL 2024 is around the corner with all 32 teams reporting for training camp in mid-to-late July. Last season, I hit 61% of my Circa Million V and NFL playoff sides and totals. I'll preview every team to prepare for the upcoming year, give out my favorite season-long bet, and record projections for each. These are mostly ‘picks’ but I'll tell you which bets are ‘in pocket’. The Tennessee Titans are the final 2024 AFC South team I'm previewing.
It's a new era in Tennessee as Brian Callahan takes over the head coaching role from 2021 NFL Coach of the Year, Mike Vrabel. Before joining the Titans, Callahan served as the Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator (OC) from 2019-23. He has big shoes to fill. Tennessee consistently overperformed its talent under Vrabel. The Titans made the playoffs in three of Vrabel's six years, winning back-to-back AFC South titles in 2020-21.
READ: Will Levis Looking To Raise Titans From Worst To First In AFC South
But after Tennessee's second consecutive losing season in 2023, the Titans were finally able to start the rebuild NFL analysts clamored for. Tennessee went 6-11 on a 7.5-win total last year and finished last in the AFC South. Callahan brings his father, and longtime offensive line guru, Bill, with him to fix the Titans' trenches. In 2023, their offensive line was 31st in adjusted sack rate and 29th in pressure rate, per the 2024 Football Outsiders Almanac.
Tennessee Titans QB Will Levis dives toward the goal-line against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Florida. (Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)
More importantly, Tennessee's front office opened its wallet, spending the most in free agency this offseason, according to OverTheCap.com. The Titans signed two starting cornerbacks, L'jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie, C Lloyd Cushenberry III, WR Calvin Ridley, and RB Tony Pollard to replace four-time Pro Bowl RB Derrick Henry. Their main goal is to see if second-year QB Will Levis is a "franchise quarterback" worth building around.
Tennessee Titans 2024 Odds
Courtesy of DraftKings at 10:30 a.m. ET Tuesday, July 30.
- Super Bowl: +15000
- AFC: +8000
- Division: +1000
- Playoffs: Yes (+425) | No (-650)
- 6.5 Wins: Over (+110) | Under (-135)
Levis had the worst completion rate and third-worst QBR last season. Having watched him in college at Penn State, then Kentucky, I thought Levis would suck, and he rightfully fell into Round 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft after being rumored to go first overall. Levis has all the physical tools, including a cannon for a throwing arm.
He showed off his potential last year with a four-touchdown game in a win vs. the Atlanta Falcons in his first start and led the Titans to a comeback win over the Dolphins. However, I'm sticking with my pre-draft prediction of Levis being a backup, not a "franchise quarterback." His processing speed wasn't fast enough for SEC football, let alone NFL football.
Furthermore, I'm pessimistic about the Callahan hire. While it's smart to get a young quarterback an offensive-minded coach, Callahan was never the play-caller in Cincy. We've seen OCs for elite quarterbacks fail as head coaches. Recent examples include Adam Gase for the Miami Dolphins in 2016-18 and the New York Jets in 2019-20, and Nathanial Hackett for the Denver Broncos in 2022.
Tennessee Titans GM Ran Carthon and head coach Brian Callahan introduce first-round draft pick LT J.C. Latham at the Ascension Saint Thomas Sports Park in Nashville. (Denny Simmons/The Tennessean/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Vrabel was one of the best game managers and head coaches in "high-leverage" situations (third down and in the red zone). Tennessee played 12 one-score games (5-7) in 2023 with Vrabel bleeding the clock to keep his team "in range". The Titans led the league in defensive red-zone conversion rate last season. They ranked inside the top 10 in third-down defense in four of Vrabel's six years at the helm.
Also, Tennessee lost its leading sack artist (DE Denico Autry) and tackler from 2023 (LB Azeez Al-Shaair). The Titans didn't sign any new pass rushers. Instead, they will rely on Pro Bowl DT Jeffrey Simmons, and OLBs Arden Key and Harold Landry to step up. Tennessee replaced Al-Shaair with LB Kenneth Murray, who ranked 76th out of 82 linebackers last year in Pro Football Focus (PFF).
Essentially, Tennessee got worse at coaching, directly affecting its defense, and didn't get better on offense because of Levis's low ceiling. Plus, I'm more confident the other three teams in this division have gotten better. All in all, I have the Titans finishing LAST IN THE AFC SOUTH again in 2024 and 4-13.
‘Best Bet’ For the 2024 Tennessee Titans on an unlimited bankroll: Last Winless Team (+800) at DraftKings
For the record, this is an educated guess, rather than an in-pocket bet. Regardless, the Titans need Levis to take another step or two in his maturation, and Callahan needs to be a home run hire. Tennessee has its bye in Week 5, the earliest possible bye week, and gives the other winless teams a chance to break their maidens while the Titans aren't playing.
Plus, they are underdogs in their first four games, at the Chicago Bears (+4.5), vs. the Jets (+4), vs. the Green Bay Packers (+3.5), and at the Dolphins (+6.5). In Week 6, Tennessee hosts the Indianapolis Colts, but is +1.5 underdogs, before going on the road to play the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions.
Tennessee Titans QB Will Levis congratulates his teammates after drills on the first day of training camp at Ascension Saint Thomas Sports Park. (Denny Simmons/The Tennessean/USA TODAY NETWORK)
As of July 30, the only game the Titans are favored this year is at home vs. the New England Patriots (-2.5) in Week 9. The Patriots (+600) are the only team with better odds than the Carolina Panthers (+800) and the Titans to be the last winless NFL team. New England's Week 4 home matchup with the Seattle Seahawks is the most winnable game for either it or Tennessee before Week 5.
The other teams with similar odds of being the last winless NFL team are Carolina, the Minnesota Vikings (+1000), the Denver Broncos (+1100), and the New York Giants (+1200). I'm high on the Panthers relative to the market, who play in the easiest division in football. The Vikings play the Giants in Week 1. Both have solid head coaches, who figure out ways to win close games. Denver is a slight home favorite (-1) in Week 5 vs. the Las Vegas Raiders and has a proven head coach too.
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