Patriotism Be Damned, Serbia Is The Right Bet Vs. Team USA Sunday In Summer Olympics

It kills me to do this. But, the value is with Serbia when they face Team USA at 11:15 a.m. ET in their Group C opener in the Paris Summer Olympics at Pierre Mauroy Stadium Sunday, July 28. I love America, and we should be favorites over a "Team World" with all the best international players. 

Yet, that's outdated thinking. Granted, Team USA was still a heavy favorite to win Olympic gold when the games began Saturday. But, even though it breaks my brain, the world has caught up with us in basketball. Case in point, Serbia C Nikola Jokić is the reigning NBA MVP and the undisputed best player in the world. 

Team USA hammered Serbia 105-79 in a July 17 exhibition in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates in preparation for the Summer Olympics. The Americans easily covered as -15.5 favorites and Steph Curry scored a game-high 24 points. Team USA held Jokić to 16 points on 31.6% shooting (6-for-19). 

America is only a -13.5 favorite for Sunday's game vs. Serbia, and the betting public might see value in Team USA. Unfortunately, the gambler in me supersedes the patriot in me. There's a solid chance that bettors will back the Americans based on the same outdated thinking mentioned above. 

However, Serbia was missing two starters for that game because it was the second leg of a back-to-back, and the United States could be without two bigs Sunday, Serbian SG Bogdan Bogdanović and forward Nikola Jovic didn't play against America July 17. American C Joel Embiid and PF Anthony Davis are dealing with illnesses and didn't practice this weekend. 

READ: Olympic Basketball Reminds Us That You Can Allow Defense And Still Make The Game Fun

Bogdanović is a sharpshooter who averaged a career-high 16.9 points per game (PPG) for the Atlanta Hawks in 2023-24 and finished fifth in NBA Sixth Man of the Year voting. He scored 17.0 PPG in his two prep contests for the Olympics and shot 66.7% from behind the arc. Jovic started 38 of his 46 games for the Miami Heat last season and all five of their playoff games. He's another deep threat and shot 39.9% from three in 2023-24. 

Serbia C Nikola Jokic drives to the basket on American C Anthony Davis and PG Bam Adebayo during a preparation game for the Paris Olympic Games at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (Christopher Pike/Getty Images)

Furthermore, the frontcourt is the worst place to be undermanned against Serbia because of Jokić. Embiid and AD are elite defenders and C Bam Adebayo is the only other American big. Bam is one of my favorite NBA players, but he's too small for this matchup. Jokić averaged 30.2 PPG, 14.0 rebounds, and 7.2 assists vs. Adebayo and the Heat in the 2023 NBA Finals. 

Ultimately, Team USA doesn't have a rest edge Sunday as it did in the exhibition, Serbia will have its full squad, and the Americans had close victories in the Summer Olympics preps over Australia (98-92), South Sudan (101-100), and Germany (92-88). I feel bad about this, but the USA respects a guy trying to make a buck and Serbia is the right side Sunday. 

BET Serbia +13.5 (-112) at FanDuel. I'd bet the Serbians down to +12.5. 

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