Team Total Play For Monday Night Football

Giants vs. Steelers, 8:15 ET

Football has been a bit of a mixed bag for me lately. At one point I was 11-1 on picks for Outkick, so coming back down to Earth wasn't exactly a surprise, but lately it has felt like I've been ice cold with picks. I shouldn't completely say that - basketball has been outstanding, I'm 2-0 on hockey plays, and still up around 20u from first touchdown scorer props. I need to turn it around on the football field though and look to do that here as the Giants take on the Steelers on Monday Night Football. 

I had a conversation with fellow Outkick handicapper, Geoff Clark, not too long ago and mentioned that the Giants are kind of in a Jekyll and Hyde situation. Specifically with Daniel Jones, their quarterback, it seems like Jones is a good, competent quarterback when he plays anywhere outside of New York. Inside New York, he is awful. That can somewhat be exemplified by the Giants being 2-5 overall with a 2-1 road record, leaving an 0-4 record at home. If that trend continues, then the Giants should gain a bit of trust from bettors in tonight's road game to Pittsburgh. New York's offense hasn't looked very good lately, but again those games both took place in New York. They scored only 10 points over their past two games. They scored 50 over their past two road games, including 29 in Seattle, typically a tough place to visit. This won't be an easy game for them as Pittsburgh has one of the better defenses in the league, with the second-best rush defense in football. They aren't quite as staunch against the pass, but they are still respectable and overall they allow the second-fewest points to opponents in all of football. Jones will need to be crisp and the Giants will have to be creative with their offense and get Malik Nabers the ball. He is, by far, their best playmaker. 

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - SEPTEMBER 26: Daniel Jones #8 of the New York Giants looks to pass the ball during the second quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at MetLife Stadium on September 26, 2024 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

It is a bit hard for me to describe how the Steelers are this good for this long. It is almost like the run the Spurs had, but they used #1 picks to position themselves to not miss the playoffs. Each year I think it will be the year that the Steelers stumble and fall. Each year they find a way to remain relevant. Their defense, as mentioned, is great. They are aggressive, but also play appropriate coverage and find ways to keep opponents in front of them. On offense, they are methodical. Although I wouldn't call them flashy, they are successful enough with their efforts. They've moved Russell Wilson to the starter of the team and that should give them some added passing game success. After looking a bit rusty, Wilson was able to throw for 264 yards on 16-of-29 passing with two touchdowns. He was also able to rush the ball three times and took one of those carries across the goal line. He does make the offense look more competent. The Giants defense has been pretty good this season, but is allowing 21.5 points per game on average. The Giants are allowing 138.1 yards on the ground to opponents which plays into the hands of what the Steelers want to do. 

There isn't a lot of room for error if you play the under, but I also don't think either team has an amazing offense to push them over the top. Both want to slow the game down and work their way down the field. This could be a field position game. I also think the Giants are able to at least be competitive in this one, but backing them with the points isn't something I really want to embrace. The only bet I truly feel confident in is that the Steelers will score over 20.5 points in tonight's game. 

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