Team Total Look For Iowa State vs. South Dakota State

South Dakota St. vs. Iowa State, 7:35 ET

"Do-do-do-da-do-da-do" that is the noise I've been hearing in my head for the past week as I gear up for college hoops this week. I love the chime before the basketball games start and we get the excitement of this new tournament that is upon us. Last year I was in a pool watching all of these games - it was a great experience, highly recommend getting out to Stadium Swim if you can for the opening weekend. This year I'm at home, but I'm still locked into these games and plan on watching as many as possible. We are going to focus in on one of the later games on the slate as South Dakota State takes on Iowa State. 

It isn't that I love matchups between 15 and 2 seeds, it just so happens I think there is some good value in these games. In this one we have South Dakota State who went 19-12 overall and 12-4 within their conference. They then won three more games (pushing their record to 22-12 overall) in the Summit Conference Tournament to get their bid into the big dance. They are currently on an eight-game winning streak and have won 10 of their past 11 games. They have scored at least 70 points in all but two of their games that have taken place since we've flipped the calendar to 2024. They haven't been very poor defensively as they've allowed only 80 or more points just four times in the same span. The biggest issue here is that they aren't playing teams that are very talented. The caliber of the opponent certainly wasn't the level of what they will see against Iowa State. South Dakota State does have a few solid players - their guard, Zeke Mayo is averaging almost 19 points per game and is going to try and make a name for himself against the Cyclones. They have another couple of guys on the team that are strong contributors and solid enough offensive players. 

Iowa State is one of those teams that could surprise some people in the tournament. Sure, it is hard to surprise many when you're a two-seed, but the truth is they don't receive the attention that other bigger-named schools do. Iowa State ended up winning the Big 12 Conference Tournament with a very convincing win against Houston. In that game they were able to beat Houston by 28 points and never really looked like they were in jeopardy of letting the lead slip away. It wasn't an easy path to get to the championship either as they had to beat Baylor and Kansas State in order to get to the championship. They won both of those games by 14 or more points. If they can carry over any of that offensive efficiency and the defensive tenacity, this should be a cakewalk for them. Iowa State is built around a talented group that is well balanced and they are capable of having a variety of guys carry the load on any given night. They only have a rotation of about seven or eight players, but they all contribute well and the game plan for the team is typically what makes them hard to deal with. They are more than willing to exploit the weakness of the other team and be selfless. 

The spread indicates this game won't be close, which I certainly can understand, but that isn't what is of interest to me in this one. To me the play has to be on a total here. I like the total for the game to go over, but I think the main contribution to the over will be Iowa State's team total and I'm going to play that to go over 75.5. There just isn't going to be enough defense on South Dakota State compared to what they've faced before in order to stop Iowa State. Back the Cyclones to go over their team total. 

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