Team Total Look As Cardinals Take On Pirates

Cardinals vs. Pirates, 6:40 ET

When baseball first introduced the idea of having three Wild Card spots, it seemed like a bad idea to me. A few years ago when they had a ton of one-game playoffs because everyone tied it was fantastic. The games were great, the drama was excellent, all of it. I loved it. I thought this was essentially eliminating all of that. However, on the opposite side, all of the Wild Card spots have made the regular season much more interesting. While the Braves and Yankees probably have the top spots locked up, in the National League, there are legitimately nine teams that are reasonably within striking distance of a Wild Card. The Cardinals are currently the second spot, and the Pirates are 0.5 games back of the last spot - they square off tonight. 

The Cardinals have turned their season around. At the start it looked like it was going to be just like last year where they finished dead last. The team made some adjustments in the offseason, focusing on improving the pitching staff (most of it was bargain signings) and so far it has worked out. The hitting still isn't quite where they need it to be from their two superstars. Nolan Arenado is hitting rather well, but he has just nine homers for the season and 14 doubles, so most of his hits have been singles. Paul Goldschmidt looks like he has forgotten how to hit altogether. This season, he is batting .225 and only has 86 hits while striking out 120 times this season. If the season ended today, this would easily be his worst season of his career. He didn't hit a ton of homers in his 2020 season, but he was still batting .304 overall. He's never had a season with a .700 OPS, this season, he is at .658. Not ideal for a guy going into free agency. The Cardinals have Andre Pallante on the hill, and he has pitched to a 4.21 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. Pallante started in the bullpen but has worked his way into the rotation. His two starts this month have been decent enough. He went seven innings in Pittsburgh and allowed just one solo homer as the Cardinals won 3-2 in 10 innings. His next start he allowed four earned runs over 6.1 innings against the Royals. Overall, the Pirates have 13 hits in 54 at-bats, resulting in a .241 batting average. 

May 25, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA;  Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller (23) delivers a pitch against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Pirates are above .500! I'm actually rooting for this franchise, and maybe I shouldn't. They've been bad for years, but they've had some good players. Unfortunately they either can't keep them or choose not to keep them. Is the ownership not allowing the team to spend money, do players not want to stay? Who knows the answers? Either way, they can't seem to field a good team. This season they took a shot and called up their phenom from last season's draft and that could be what has reinvigorated the franchise. Now they have a chance to make the playoffs. Today, they sit just a half-game back of the Mets for the final Wild Card spot. The offense could use some consistency and help for the season, and unfortunately, there aren't many people on the market. Where the Pirates are excelling is the pitching staff. Collectively, they have a 3.85 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. Tonight they have a guy who has gotten the best of me, Mitch Keller, on the mound. Keller is 10-5 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. None of those numbers are top of the league, but they are very respectable. He has been better at home than he has on the road with a 2.91 ERA in Pittsburgh. He has faced the Cardinals twice this season and allowed nine earned runs in 11 innings against St. Louis. Both starts resulted in losses for Keller. Overall the Cardinals are hitting .274 against Keller in 168 at-bats.

I think the best way to play this game is on some sort of total. In this one, I prefer the Cardinals team total over 3.5 at -135. I also think the Cardinals probably win this game, but I'm not as comfortable backing Pallante. I was originally thinking the 8.5 or Pirates total might be a good look, but I don't trust their offense enough. I'm going to stick with the Cardinals over 3.5 runs in this game. 

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