Taylor Swift Bowl, Coach Prime Vs. USC, Ryder Cup, Canelo Vs. Charlo: Weekend Betting Guide
This is the 4th version of my "Weekend Betting Guide" and the early returns are exciting. My record on bets given out is 11-3-1 and my betting bankroll is +11.51 units (u).
Last weekend was my worst with a 3-1-1 performance but only +0.2u. My biggest blunder was not having more confidence in my bet for the Oregon Ducks to trample Coach Prime and the Colorado Buffaloes.
As predicted in OutKick's "Weekend Betting Guide", coach Deion Sanders walks the sidelines as his Colorado Buffaloes get pasted by the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium in Eugene. (Tom Hauck/Getty Images)
This weekend is more exciting than the last. We have another high-profile Deion Sanders game to bet on. Saturday is Fight Night with the 4th-best pound-for-pound boxer, Saul "Canelo" Alvarez, taking on Jermell Charlo.
Not only that but the 2023 Ryder Cup is this weekend, the Americans show the English what "real football looks like," and Taylor Swift gets to witness, in-person, the cursed Jets get dropkicked by her new boyfriend, Chiefs TE Travis Kelce.
Best bets for September 30th to October 1st
Ryder Cup, Saturday at 2:20 a.m. ET: Jon Rahm/Tyrrell Hatton (-121) vs. Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay
This is a "Foursome" match, which means golfers play with the same ball and alternate shots until the hole is complete. The team with the best score wins a point for the hole.
Hatton and Rahm won their 1st Foursome match vs. Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns Friday. Rahm and Hatton face off against Xander and Cantlay in a Foursome match Saturday.
As much as it pains me to go against the Americans, Rahm is crushing this Italian golf course and Team USA ain't going to pay my bills.
According to Data Golf, Rahm has a +8.64 Strokes Gained (SG): Tee-to-Green (T2G) during Day 1 of the Ryder Cup. Whereas Schauffele was +1.55 SG: T2G in Day 1 and Cantlay was -1.19 SG: T2G.
BET 1.21u on Jon Rahm/Tyrrell Hatton (-121) at PointsBet
‘SEC Game of the Weekend’: No. 22 Florida +1 at Kentucky (noon ET on ESPN)
Honestly, I'm not as excited about this bet after placing it earlier this week. Ignore the "Follow The Market" part of the headline below. There is buy-back on Kentucky and the line is moving away from me.
Typically you want to avoid betting ranked teams over unranked teams in conference games when the line is suspicious. That said, I'm powering through and adding this to my "Weekend Betting" column because I believe in my matchup analysis.
BET 1u on Florida moneyline (+105) at PointsBet
‘Coach Prime Bet of the Weekend’: No. 8 USC -21.5 at Colorado (noon ET on FOX)
Deion Sanders makes Colorado "must-see" TV. And there's no way I'm going to watch USC-Colorado without putting at least a "Pizza Bet" on it. Just like last week vs. Oregon, the sportsbooks are begging for Colorado money at this number (+21.5).
We aren't falling for the trap though.
Sure, USC’s defense is disappointing compared to the offense. The Trojans rank 57th nationally in yards per game allowed. But, Colorado’s defense is atrocious and allows 475.8 yards per game, which ranks 122nd.
Furthermore, Colorado is thin at cornerback. Buffaloes CB Travis Hunter got injured vs. Colorado State in Week 3 and Deion’s son, Colorado CB Shilo Sanders, is banged-up after last week's game against Oregon.
This isn’t ideal with Trojans QB, and reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Caleb Williams coming to Boulder. USC leads the country with 55.0 points per game and Williams has a 15/0 TD/INT rate so far this year.
USC Trojans QB Caleb Williams drops back against Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium in Tempe. (Adam Bow/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Also, the way to attack USC’s defense is on the ground. Yet Colorado averages 1.3 yards per rush and ranks 125th in rushing rate. I.e. the Buffaloes are going to be in passing situations on 3rd down.
USC has the 11th-highest sack rate in the country and Colorado’s offensive line is 122nd in sack rate allowed. That combination could lead to some strip-sack fumbles by Southern California’s defense.
Finally, some of Colorado’s early-season success is correlated to turnover-luck. The Buffaloes have 11 takeaways in just four games this year including seven interceptions.
Well, USC only has two giveaways so far this season and, again, Williams hasn’t thrown an INT. The Trojans can pick their score and this being a high-profile game should help focus USC’s defense.
BET 1.1u on USC -21.5 (-110) at PointsBet
'Fight Night': Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo (11 p.m. ET ringwalk, Showtime PPV)
Typically, when betting team sports, the sharp play is to bet the underdog. Since the public loves betting favorites, the sportsbooks tend to "need" the underdog to pull off an upset. However, the opposite is true of boxing.
Your average Joe loves to bet underdogs in boxing. For most Floyd Mayweather Jr. fights, oddsmakers had more liability on his opponent. Meaning, the public would bet against an undefeated Mayweather. So Canelo as a -358 at PointsBet will be the "contrarian play" most likely.
Canelo Alvarez and Jermell Charlo at a press conference to preview their September 30 super middleweight undisputed championship fight. (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
More importantly, Alvarez is the bigger boxer with more title-fight experience who has been busier. For example, Canelo is 20-2-1 with 11 knockouts (KOs) in world title bouts while Charlo is 7-1-1 with 6 KOs.
Charlo is moving up from the 154-pound division to fight Alvarez at 168 pounds. Fourteen pounds is a huge difference in boxing. Finally, Canelo has fought, and won, two bouts since Charlo's last fight in May 2022.
BET 1u on Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez to win (-358) at PointsBet
The 'Real Football' Game of the Weekend: Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (9:30 a.m. ET, FOX)
Soccer sucks. I don't know how many NFL games we have to export to show Europeans what real football looks like. Not that boring, soft, lifeless quasi-sport they call "football". In fact, we've sent the Jaguars over to London so many times they probably have more fans in England than Jacksonville.
From a football perspective, this is a "buy-low" spot on the Jaguars. They've lost back-to-back home games to the Chiefs in Week 2 and the Houston Texans last weekend. Lastly, Atlanta can't throw the ball and Jacksonville's defense is great vs. the run.
BET 1.1u on Jaguars -3 (-110) at PointsBet
NFL Week 4 'Best Bet': Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans +2.5 (1 p.m. ET, FOX)
This is your standard Pros vs. Joe's game in the betting market. The public is going to back Joe Burrow and the Bengals. But, the professionals will take Titans coach Mike Vrabel as a home underdog vs. a gimpy Burrow and his weak offensive line.
Or, at least, that's what I'm going to tell myself since I took the points with the Titans. Instead of wasting any more ink on this matchup just click the link above to read my full breakdown.
BET 1.1u on Titans +2.5 (-110) at PointsBet
'Taylor Swift Bowl': Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC)
You should probably bet this ASAP if you're tailing because Kansas City's spread will only get higher. Everyone and their grandmothers are going to back the Chiefs to dismantle the lowly Jets on Sunday Night Football in Week 4.
But, people will fade the Jets for good reason. Aaron Rodgers is telling his offense "to grow up," Jets legend Joe Namath is trashing current Jets QB Zach Wilson. Jets WR Garrett Wilson is bickering on the sidelines with Wilson and coaches. It's all bad in New York.
Also, and this has nothing to do with gambling, but it feels like the Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce thing takes the pressure off of the Chiefs for their Super Bowl title defense. There isn't a white-hot spotlight on KC to repeat like most league champions.
Taylor Swift watches the Chiefs vs. Chicago Bears at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (David Eulitt/Getty Images)
No one is discussing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense's sluggish start to the season. With that in mind, Kansas City will be motivated to get its offense clicking and to light it up on primetime.
More importantly, the Chiefs have one of the defenses in the NFL and New York's offense is a corpse. The Jets are so bad on offense that I think their defense throws in the towel around the 3rd quarter.