Tar Heels Can Steal Win With Flagg Sidelined

North Carolina vs. Duke, 7:00 ET

Just a 1-1 day yesterday, so nothing very exciting to write about when it comes to yesterday's games. I expected Kansas to win, and, of course, they were hot garbage. It wasn't that Hunter Dickinson was bad, he actually played pretty well. The problem was that Kansas allowed 40 points to the Arizona bench. Not really sure how they did that, but I'll move on. Luckily I got a win with UConn so the day was balanced out. Now we head to a game that always gets a lot of attention, and this one will be no different as North Carolina takes on Duke.

North Carolina has already lost twice to the Dukies this season, and are looking to avoid a third. The truth is, North Carolina is playing pretty decent basketball right now and has a legitimate shot to win this. The game plan will probably similar to what they had just a few days ago when they played each other in the ACC regular season finale. The Tar Heels had a lead in that game, but Duke eventually wore them down and won the game. The concerning thing for North Carolina is how effectively Duke shot from deep. They can't allow an opponent to hit almost half of their shots. RJ Davis still had a really good game, but they limited the rest of the team to 49 points, and only one other player was able to score double-digits. Essentially, the key for this one is going to be trying to find some sort of mismatch. I'm not overly confident they can do that. Davis will get his points, but North Carolina needs consistent threats from someone else if they are going to win.

Jan 27, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Kon Knueppel (7) reacts to a dunk by forward Cooper Flagg during the second half against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Cameron Indoor Stadium.  The Blue Devils won 74-64. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

This Duke team felt like one that could win it all. Unfortunately, if you watched yesterday's game, the #1 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft soared for a rebound and came down on his ankle, rolling it in the process. Is it broken? Is it sprained? There hasn't been any confirmation, but I can tell you this - Flagg will not play basketball again in the ACC Tournament, and he probably won't play the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Duke is deep enough that they should be able to win without him for that long. Make no mistake though, they will miss him. He leads the team in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. The team is going to look different, but they still will be fine. Yesterday, another freshman, Kon Knueppel, was able to carry the load without Flagg, scoring 28 points for Duke. Flagg played most of the first half yesterday and Duke was down by five. They scored 52 points without him and only allowed eight more in the second half than in the first.

The reality is that North Carolina really needs this game if they want to assure themselves of a spot in the tournament. In the last game between these two I mentioned that very thing. I know Duke is good, and their defense should still be strong here. However, I think we are fooling ourselves if we don't believe North Carolina is licking their chops to beat a hurting Duke team. Winning the one game without your superstar is one thing, but I think North Carolina can win this one. I'll take the points at 7.5 because that's too many to pass, but a moneyline sprinkle may be in order here as well. 

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