Tar Heels Can Knock Off Ranked Opponent Tonight

North Carolina vs. Florida, 7:00 ET

College hoops have been pretty surprising this season, but I suppose if you look close enough, most seasons have a lot of fluctuation, especially in the top 25. It just seems like this season hasn't had anyone start this year as a clear leader of the pack. There are certainly some very talented teams that will be favorites in the long run. As of right now, it is hard to see specifically who they are as pretty much every team is flawed. We have a flawed team in this one facing off against a currently perfect team, as North Carolina takes on Florida. 

North Carolina is off to a bad start, going just 6-4 over their first 10 games of the season. That's about a quarter of their year, and if you show that out for the entire season, it might still get them into the big dance. However, I'm not sure they want to test that fate. They've had a tough schedule to start their year, but that isn't an excuse. They lost their second game of the year to Kansas, then ranked the #1 team in the nation, and it was a road game. They fell by just three points, so it wasn't that big of a deal. Their other three losses came against Auburn and Michigan State, both in a Thanksgiving tournament. Their final loss came against Alabama, 10th at the time, but this one came at Chapel Hill, and they lost by 15. They've bounced back a bit in their past two games, winning over Georgia Tech and La Salle. Georgia Tech made them really fight for it though as they won by just three points. RJ Davis is still a great offensive weapon, but he hasn't led the team in scoring in five games. That means he is getting more defensive attention, and the team needs to step up. While a few of them are, the Tar Heels still need more support. 

Dec 14, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Florida Gators head coach Todd Golden reacts during the second half against the Arizona State Sun Devils at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

Florida has had a much better beginning to their campaign, and they look to continue their perfect start and run it to 11-0 if they get a win tonight. They haven't had nearly as difficult of a schedule as the Tar Heels, but you play who is on your schedule, so you can't really hold that against them. At this point, they haven't even played anyone ranked in the nation, and this North Carolina team might be the best team that Florida has had to face all season. They have beaten Wake Forest, Wichita State, Virginia, and Arizona State all in a row, but again, none of those teams are currently ranked. They also haven't played any close games at this point. That could be a credit to them, though, as they are winning with ease, and not a reflection of the quality of their opponent. The team is led by Walter Clayton Jr. who is averaging 19.1 points per game. He should cancel out Davis's scoring. Overall, there are some very good options on the Gators. 

I want to share a thought that I have had on a lot of games over the years - the spread really doesn't matter. The Tar Heels are either going to win this game, or the Gators are going to win by 10 or more. I really don't see much of an in-between. The game is not being played in Florida, it is actually being played in North Carolina, which means this is more of a home game for UNC despite technically being the road team. I also like that UNC has been battle tested already. I am going to play the Tar Heels to win this one, but if you want the safe play, take the Tar Heels with the points.