Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pillage NFC South Again In 2024 Or Does The Ship Sink?
NFL 2024 is around the corner with preseason starting August 1. Last year, I hit 61% of my Circa Million V and NFL playoff sides and totals. I'll preview every team to prepare for the upcoming year, give out my favorite season-long bet, and record projections for each. These are mostly ‘picks’ but I'll tell you which bets are ‘in pocket’. I've broken down the AFC South and NFC South-favorite Atlanta Falcons already. Now, it's time to hit the 2023 division champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay threepeated as NFC South champions as the betting underdog (+800), finishing 9-8 on a 6.5-win total in the first season after Tom Brady's retirement. The Bucs beat the brakes off the 2023 NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles in the 2024 NFC wild-card round. Then they went toe-to-toe with the Detroit Lions in a 31-23 divisional-round loss.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield throws an interception vs. the Detroit Lions in the 2024 NFC divisional round at Ford Field in Michigan. (David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports)
The Buccaneers took a flier on journeyman QB Baker Mayfield and, man, did it pay off. Baker made his first Pro Bowl last season while setting career highs in passing yards (4,044) and passing touchdowns (28), and having the second-best QB Rating of his career (94.6). Tampa rewarded Mayfield with a 3-year, $100 million extension in March.
Now-former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales deserves credit for Baker's best year too. He is a QB whisperer, who got the most out of Mayfield and Russell Wilson, and Geno Smith for the Seattle Seahawks from 2018-22. In fact, Canales leaving Tampa for the Carolina Panthers' head coaching gig is the most important thing to happen in the NFC South this offseason.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2024 Odds
Courtesy of DraftKings at 2:30 p.m. ET Thursday, August 1.
- Super Bowl: +8000
- Conference: +3500
- Division: +320
- Playoffs: Yes (+145) | No (-185)
- 7.5 Wins: Over (-150) | UNDER (+125)
Tampa's 2023 offensive production is unsustainable. The Buccaneers were off-schedule all season due to their playcalling and terrible rushing attack. They went run-run-pass at the highest rate in the league and gained an NFL-worst 3.4 yards per rush. But, Tampa was 10th in third-down conversion rate and Baker pulled out his magic beans to convert third-and-longs.
*Insert the Jesse from Breaking Bad meme: "He cannot keep getting away with this".* As long as Todd Bowles is their head coach, the Bucs will have a boring offense. Tampa's so-so offensive efficiency will suffer with Canales' departure. I believe Bowles directed Canales to run the ball on early downs, and we'll see more of the same from the Bucs this year.
Packers DT Kenny Clark sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Dan Powers-USA TODAY Sports)
Meanwhile, per ESPN, Tampa Bay's offensive line had the worst run-block win rate in the NFL last season. The Buccaneers took OL Graham Barton with the 26th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and RB Bucky Irving in the fourth round. However, they didn't upgrade their offensive line or running back room in free agency. I.e. Tampa's ground game isn't improving in 2024.
Finally, the Bucs play a first-place schedule this year with games against five division champions from 2023: Detroit, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, and Dallas Cowboys. Tampa will lose at least four of those games, three of which are on the road. Unless Baker takes another step forward, the Buccaneers are taking a step back this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 2024 Projection: 7-10 for third in the NFC South
_____________________________
‘Best Bet’ For the 2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on an unlimited bankroll: UNDER 7.5 wins (+125)
This is a suggestion or pick instead of an official bet because I need a bigger payout for a season-long future. That said, the Bucs had a -37 first-down differential last season (337-300) and -0.3 yards per play margin. Basically, they should not have won nine games with those underlying metrics.
Bowles will have to work his magic for Tampa's defense to play as well as it did in 2023. The Buccaneers were 21st in pressure rate last year even though they blitzed at the third-highest rate in the NFL. Their best pass rusher, OLB Shaquil Barrett, left in free agency and then retired.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield speaks to head coach Todd Bowles before a game vs. the Atlanta Falcons at Raymond James Stadium in Florida. (Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, the Bucs got torched through the air last year. They ranked 22nd in both opponent's QB Rating and completion rate, and 23rd in adjusted yards per pass attempt allowed. Tampa Bay was seventh in points per game allowed in 2023 and DraftKings projects the Buccaneers to be 15th this season.
The bottom line is Tampa needs a top-10 defense to make up for the loss of Canales and expected regression from the offense. Again, the Bucs had a 6.5-win total entering 2023, and last year was a fluke. If you must, bet water to find its level in 2024 and Tampa Bay to go Under its 7.5-win total.
_____________________________
Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.