Why Are The Los Angeles Chargers Favored -3 Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers In NFL Week 15?

Among all the great games in NFL Week 15, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) at the Los Angeles Chargers (8-5) is underrated. Both teams have ballin' quarterbacks and are in playoff races. Tampa Bay is atop the NFC South and LAC is the AFC's 6-seed currently with the same record as the 5- (Baltimore Ravens) and 7-seeds (Denver Broncos). 

As of 3 p.m. ET Thursday, the Bucs are +3 (-115) at BetMGM, the Chargers have a -150 moneyline and Tampa's moneyline is +125, and the total is 45.5. Kickoff at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles is 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday. The BUCCANEERS +3, down to +2, is my second-favorite bet of Week 15 and will make my Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest card.  

I've come a long way from my original projection of Bucs QB Baker Mayfield. Initially, I got Johnny Manziel vibes from Baker when he was taken first in the 2018 NFL Draft. I thought Mayfield would be the fourth-best quarterback from that draft behind Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen, former New York Jets QB Sam Darnold, and former Arizona Cardinals QB Josh Rosen, but ahead of Baltimore Ravens two-time NFL MVP QB Lamar Jackson. 

Who are the Los Angeles Chargers to be laying -3 vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL Week 15? (Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images)

Woof. That's a bad look for my draft analysis. I doubled down on Baker being a bust by praising the Cleveland Browns when they replaced him with QB Deshaun Watson. I finally admitted defeat last season after Mayfield led Tampa to an NFC South crown. In the playoffs, the Buccaneers beat the Philadelphia Eagles in an NFC wild-card game and lost to the Detroit Lions 31-23 on the road in the divisional round. 

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Sure, Baker had a rough 2022, starting with the Carolina Panthers and getting traded mid-season to the Los Angeles Rams. However, Mayfield has been legitimately awesome since signing with Tampa Bay last offseason. He threw a career-best 28 touchdowns with only 10 interceptions in 2023. Baker has already thrown 28 TDs this season and has a career-high 101.4 QB Rating. 

Meanwhile, the Bucs have one of the most impressive resumes this year. They destroyed the Washington Commanders 37-20 in their season opener. Tampa Bay gave Detroit its only loss of the season, 20-17, on the road in Week 2. The Buccaneers smacked the NFC's second-best team, the Philadelphia Eagles, 33-16 in Week 4. 

Tampa Bay lost in overtime to the back-to-back Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9. The Bucs went toe-to-toe in a 23-20 loss to a healthy NFC champion San Francisco 49ers team thanks to a walk-off field goal the week after. The Buccaneers covered the spread in both games and have a three-game winning streak since. 

They lost three straight games from Weeks 8-10 because Pro Bowl WR Chris Godwin suffered a season-ending injury in Week 7 and five-time Pro Bowl WR Mike Evans missed all three games. Well, Evans is healthy, and the Buccaneers are fourth in yards per rush. They are better than the Chargers in yards per play, EPA, success rate, on third down, and in the red zone vs. a tougher schedule. 

Hence, the market is sleeping on Tampa. Pro Football Focus has the Bucs 16th in its power rankings and the Chargers are 12th. I'd love to see PFF's math for that. Per Inpredictable.com, which aggregates the spreads for every team, Tampa Bay is 17th, and Los Angeles is 12th. Yet, the Broncos in Week 6 was LAC's only victory vs. a team with a winning record. 

While the Chargers probably have a better quarterback and coach, Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles is an elite defensive tactician and Los Angeles doesn't have any game-breakers. Chargers rookie WR Ladd McConkey, their only wide receiver who gets open, is questionable for this game and missed last week, and RB J.K. Dobbins is out for the season. 

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The public will hammer the Chargers after narrowly losing to the Chiefs 19-17 on Sunday Night Football last week but covering as +4.5 road underdogs. Plus, Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert and head coach Jim Harbaugh are considered top-10 in their respective roles, whereas Bowles and Mayfield aren't. 

Finally, despite their better underlying metrics and higher divisional standing, the Bucs have longer odds of winning the NFC (+2000) than the Chargers to win the AFC (+1500). Nevertheless, just like the spread, those odds are priced wrong, and this game should be a pick 'em. 

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Chargers 20 

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