Take The Over In Dodgers Vs Brewers

Dodgers vs. Brewers, 7:40 ET

There are always games available to bet on, but that doesn't mean you should do it all the time. I never really thought of it this way, but Geoff Clark mentioned it on a podcast we were doing and I love the way it was summed up: The advantage we have over the book is we get to choose what to bet on. I'm choosing this game because I think it is mispriced. The Dodgers and Brewers take each other on Tuesday night.

The Dodgers are playing better baseball than they did to start the season. That really isn't much of a surprise considering that they were basically .500 to start the year and nothing was going great for them. Now they seem to be turning things around and currently sit six games over and are looking to take over the division heading into summer. Today they get one of their offseason acquisitions taking the ball for them, Noah Syndergaard. He was probably picked up as a test or even as a stopgap/filler in the rotation early season. If he keeps pitching the way he has he likely won't stay in the rotation long. Just like last year, he was fine in Los Angeles, but when he pitched anywhere else, he was brutal. He has allowed 13 earned runs in just eight innings outside of Dodgers stadium. He missed his last start and is now back for another, but he is on the road so I have no faith in him.

Noah Syndergaard has struggled as a road pitcher the past few years.

The Brewers don't really have the hitting that usually makes me confident they will crush the opposing pitcher, but I think they can get to Syndergaard who has been terrible as a road starter. They do have a better batting average than the Dodgers, but they've scored almost 40 fewer runs than them. As has bene the case for the past few years, the Brewers are led by their pitching staff. I expect that to continue to be the case this year, but to their credit, they've put up nine runs in their last game and seven in the prior one. Today they put Eric Lauer on the hill in hopes of beating the Dodgers. Lauer hasn't been great on the road or at home this season. He's been inconsistent at best in most games. He's allowed 10 earned runs in just seven innings at Miller Park this season. Dodgers hitters have been okay against Lauer over their career.

I think the best bet here is to play the total. I'm going to take the over 9.5 runs as both of these pitchers are in spots they haven't looked good in these situations. I'm hoping both offenses come to play in this one and we see a lot of runs. Back the over.

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