Take A Shot With Freeland Against Cardinals

Cardinals vs. Rockies, 3:10 ET

I went against my own advice last night and I paid for it. It isn't that I completely blew a play, but a loss is a loss, which is unfortunate. I took a shot on the Padres who were looking to try and take the NL West title from the Dodgers and had a big opportunity with Dylan Cease on the mound. Jack Flaherty pitched a good game (so did Cease), and in the end the Dodgers ended up with the victory. Typically, I fade a team that comes off clinches a postseason spot. We won't worry about that today as both the Cardinals and Rockies have been eliminated and are doing no celebrating.

The Cardinals will end up with at least a .500 record for the season, but they have to look at this as a disappointing season. They started the season slowly, looking very similar to the team that ended near the bottom of the NL Central last year. In the offseason, the Cardinals tried to address their pitching staff, but instead of signing a ton of great players, they added Sonny Gray (good, but aging) and a few other journeymen or guys that they wanted to take a shot on and see if it would work. Offensively the team also struggled a bit. Then everything finally clicked and they started winning games. It ended up being not enough even though they did at least give the Brewers a mini-scare at one point in the season. Today they send out Kyle Gibson to the mound in hopes of securing a winning season. Gibson is 8-8 on the year with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. While those numbers won't blow you away, they are good enough to at least be respectable and give reasonable expectations that he could be a second or third starter in the rotation. He has put together three quality starts in his past four outings. He did face the Rockies once this season, allowing three earned runs on eight hits over six innings. This will obviously be different because they are in Coors Field, and Gibson has given up 22 homers this year. 

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I will continue to preach that the only time you want to bet on Colorado is when they are playing on their home diamond. The Rockies are 36-41 at home this season which puts them within reach or at least sniffing a .500 home record. They only have 60 wins for the year, so they are looking to avoid a 100-loss season. It also means that they have only won 24 games on the road this year. There is a lot that needs to happen for Colorado to be successful, but just keep this trend in mind for future seasons. Today they send out Kyle Freeland to the mound. He's had a history of good work at Coors Field, but I won't say he is untouchable or anything. This season in nine home starts he has a 3.75 ERA and held opponents to a .246 batting average. Additionally, he has allowed just six of the 19 homers this season in Colorado. He has thrown back-to-back quality starts at home and looks to finish the season on a strong note. Freeland hasn't faced the Cardinals this season, but has been pretty good against them, holding everyone outside of Nolan Arenado to just seven hits in 39 at-bats. Arenado has gone 5-for-10 against him with two doubles. 

I think the Rockies are live dogs in this game. Freeland on the mound gives them a bit of an edge. As good as Gibson has been for the Cardinals, I'm not confident he is going to win for them in Colorado. Of the two pitchers, I feel like Gibson is more likely to give up runs than Freeland will. Let's take the Rockies in this one at +100.