Take Reds Against Young Braves Starter

Reds vs. Braves, 12:20 ET

Another 1-1 day which isn't terrible, but not what we are looking for long term. Obviously better than going 0-2, but still hard for all of us to remain profitable if we are getting blinded out of the tournament. Today, there is still a full slate of games with all teams playing, so there is no shortage of options for us. Even some teams get to play two games today. We are going to focus on one of those teams as the Reds are taking on the Braves. We will look at Game 1 - so make sure you're betting the correct game, and pitching matchup. 

The Reds are an interesting club because they are good enough to potentially make the playoffs, but they also are bad enough that they could focus on continuing to rebuild via trades. Right now, they have some key pieces that might see a trade of everyday players to some teams that are in a better spot. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the team try and grab some starting pitching that might be under control for a few more years. The team is currently 48-53 coming into today. While that is five games below .500, they still are reasonably close to the final Wild Card spot. Unfortunately for them, they are one of many teams that are close to that last spot. I would doubt the club trades away today's starter, but the team could make a decision to part with Frankie Montas if they are blown away with an offer. Montas comes into the game with a 4-8 record and a 4.85 ERA. While those numbers probably don't make you think clubs will be jumping at the chance to get him, Montas also has a 1.36 WHIP which is pretty good overall. He has struggled lately, so the Reds likely wouldn't get great value for him which makes me think he will remain in a Reds uniform anyway. Montas hasn't started against the Braves this season, but overall the hitters are 10-for-35. Whit Merrifield is 8-for-20, so the rest of the team is just 2-for-15 against him. 

(Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

The Braves need to find some starting pitching. Coming into the season, the idea was that their rotation would feature Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, Chris Sale, and someone else. That rotation would be one of the better ones in baseball. However, Spencer Strider got hurt, Max Fried has missed some time this season as well, and is currently on the injured list. They lost Ronald Acuna Jr. for the season, and Ozzie Albies is also currently out so two of their best position players are also done. Their starting center fielder, Michael Harris II, is also on the injured list. The biggest issue with the Braves has been health and continues to be health. Today, the Braves start Allan Winans who has exactly one appearance this season, and it was in April. In that game, Winans started against the Mets and went five innings and allowed six earned runs. It is hard to know exactly what from Winans because this is mostly a spot start and I'd guess he will be back in the minors after this one. Last year he wasn't great either - he had six starts and allowed 19 earned run in 32.1 innings. It should be noted that he had two starts where he allowed 13 of the earned runs, allowing seven in one game and six in another. He has never faced the Reds franchise either. 

The Braves are the better team even with the injuries, but it is very hard to back them in this one. I do think the Reds probably win the game with Montas on the mound. He certainly should be able to outduel Winans. I think that the total should go over the 8.5 runs as well. For me, I will play the Reds because I think they should be favored and currently are listed at +110. I'll back the Reds, but really wouldn't be surprised if this goes over 8.5.

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