Take The Points With Rutgers

Rutgers vs. Michigan, 9:00 ET

I mentioned yesterday that I've been kind of stuck in a situation where I've been getting mostly average results. A lot of 1-1 days, and a few 2-0 here and there. I had a 2-0 one on Tuesday, but I followed that up with an 0-2 Wednesday. So, again, I basically just went 1-1 over the two days. I'm hopeful that I can recapture those units I lost yesterday, but I also need to build up this bankroll before the tournaments instead of getting juiced out. The game I have on the docket tonight is the battle between Rutgers and Michigan. 

What kind of results do you get when you take two of the most talented players in the country and put them on a good, but not great program? Could you imagine having two guys on the same roster that might be top-5 NBA Draft picks? That's the situation that Rutgers has this season, and they are complete disappointment. For the season, the team with Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper is just 14-14 for the year. They have struggled overall, but they've also been bad in conference games with a 7-10 record. They have lost three of the past five games and six of their past ten. They are coming off of back-to-back victories over Washington and USC. Neither team is super impressive, but it was good to see them handle themselves against some of the tougher teams in the league. They did face Michigan earlier in the month and hosted them. They ended up losing the game by just three points, but neither Bailey or Harper led the team in points for that one. In fact, Harper actually didn't play in that game. Bailey was flustered in it, going 3-15 and 0-7 from deep in the game, scoring just 10 points.

ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN - FEBRUARY 21: Vladislav Goldin #50 of the Michigan Wolverines drives around Szymon Zapala #10 of the Michigan State Spartans during the first half at Crisler Arena on February 21, 2025 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Michigan is one of the teams that has come alive and turned around significantly from last season. This year, they are 21-6 for the year and are at the top of the Big 10 with a 13-3 record. For the year, their losses have come against Wake Forest on a neutral court, losing by two points. Then the same thing happened against Arkansas and Oklahoma, except they lost by one point against Oklahoma instead of two. Their other three losses came against Minnesota where they fell in overtime, on the road against Purdue, and their lone home loss was to Michigan State by 13 points. At home this season, the Wolverines have beaten Purdue, Oregon, Penn State, Northwestern, Washington, and Iowa at home. Their total margin of victory is just 32 points in those six games. Only one game was a home victory of more than five points. They struggled to beat Rutgers on the road last time, and the line has moved up significantly since that game. 

I think this is one that we might be giving a bit too much love to Michigan. I don't love Rutgers on the road, and they haven't shown much, but they did play well against Michigan in the first matchup. That game was also without Harper. I'd be very surprised to see Rutgers win this game but I think they can cover the 9.5 spread. I'm going to back them with the points here. 

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