Take A Flier On Cleveland Browns Winning Super Bowl 2023
For the past three seasons, the Cleveland Browns had a built-in excuse for falling short of an NFL championship. This season, the Browns have no excuse to compete for the AFC North or even a Super Bowl title.
In 2020, Cleveland lost to the eventual AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC divisional round. Granted, Patrick Mahomes exited that game early with an injury. But, it was Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski's 1st year on the job.
Cleveland Browns coach Kevin Stefanski looks on during a game vs. the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Maryland. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)
The Browns finished 8-9 the following year. Former Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield took the heat for the team's short-comings in 2021. The Browns were thought to be a "quarterback away" from competing for a Super Bowl.
That inspired Cleveland's front office to push all its chips in the middle of the table and trade for QB Deshaun Watson. The Browns sent a bevy of draft capital to the Houston Texans for Watson in March 2022.
They acquired and extended Watson for five years and $230 million fully guaranteed money. Cleveland did so knowing Watson would be suspended by the NFL for several sexual harassment allegations.
Watson walking off the field vs. the Washington Commanders at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. (Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
When the NFL suspended Watson for 11 games to start 2022, no one was surprised. Cleveland's Super Bowl hopes last season were dashed after the NFL handed down its suspension.
Considering how talented the Browns are on-paper and having Watson for a full season, the Browns must make the playoffs. This year will be a referendum on Watson as a franchise QB and Cleveland's front office and coaching staff.
Cleveland Browns 2023 by the odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Is Deshaun Watson still a 'franchise QB'?
I said this last year and I'll say it again: Gimme all the Watson stock you're selling. In his final season with the Houston Texans, Watson led the NFL with 4,823 passing yards. Watson had a 33/7 TD/INT ratio and a 112.4 QB Rating. Albeit back in 2020.
Sure, Watson was awful last season. Cleveland was 3-3 with Watson starting. He completed just 58.2% of his throws with a 3/3 TD/INT ratio and 79.1 QB Rating. But, Watson missed more than a year-and-a-half of NFL action and I'm willing to chalk it up to rust.
Watson after an interception by the New Orleans Saints on Christmas Eve 2022. (Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
In the 27 games Watson missed from 2021-22, there was an NFL-wide shift in pass defenses. Most of the NFL adopted Vic Fangio's two-high safety defense to eliminate big plays by all the stud QBs.
Also, Stefanski was an offensive wunderkind when he 1st was hired by the Browns in 2020. He won NFL Coach of the Year that year with Baker under center. Stefanski has the pieces to turn Cleveland into a top-5 to 10 offense in the league.
Watson runs a drill during the Cleveland Browns mandatory veteran minicamp. (Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
Most respected NFL previews say the Browns will have at least a top-10 offensive line entering 2023. Cleveland RB Nick Chubb is perhaps the best running back in football. The Browns have a legit No. 1 WR in Amari Cooper and a top-10 tight end in the NFL, David Njoku.
Furthermore, Cleveland's offense needs to be the pace-setter for the team and help its defense. Meaning, if the Browns can get more early leads it would cut their opponents' playbooks in half.
The Browns improved their defense this offseason
Cleveland traded for edge rusher Za’Darius Smith and signed edge rusher Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and DT Dalvin Tomlinson in free agency. Plus, Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett is pretty much the best in the biz.
Garrett was Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) highest-graded edge rusher last season. Smith graded 13th among 119 NFL edge rushers last year, per PFF, and Okoronkwo was 29th.
Browns DE Myles Garrett sacks Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio. (David Dermer-USA TODAY Sports)
PFF says Tomlinson is the 14th-best interior defensive lineman in 2022 out of 127 graded. The Browns hope the addition of Tomlinson will improve their rushing defense, which is their Achilles heel.
Last season, Cleveland was 28th in schedule-adjusted rush defense, according to Football Outsiders. The Browns have an above-average defensive ceiling in 2023 if they can slow down the run.
Cleveland has a sneaky good secondary. Browns CBs Denzel Ward and Gregory Newsome II are both 1st-round draft picks. The Browns poached S Juan Thornhill from the Super Bowl champion Chiefs this offseason.
The Browns celebrates an interception vs. the Washington Commanders at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. (Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
By forcing teams into more passing situations, Garrett and Smith can pin their ears back and attack the QB. The NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles had a weak run defense last year too. But, the Eagles were ahead so often opponents needed to throw on them.
Speaking of the Eagles, the Browns hired former Philadelphia defensive coordinator (DC) Jim Schwartz this offseason. Schwartz was Philly's DC in 2017 when the Eagles won the Super Bowl. Philadelphia's defense was 4th in both yards and points allowed that season.
The break-even percentage for Cleveland's +4000 Super Bowl odds is 2.4%. Between their talent on both sides of the ball, QB, and coach staff, the Browns would win the Super Bowl at least 5% of the time with this roster.
BET: Cleveland Browns to win the Super Bowl (+4000)
The Cleveland Browns' odds to win the 2023 Super Bowl from DraftKings as of Friday, July 14th.