Sutton And Saints Headline Plays For Thursday Night Football

Broncos vs. Saints, 8:15 ET

I've said it before, and I'm sure I'll be saying it again every week - I'm shocked at how far we are in the NFL season already. We are entering Week 7 already. People told me that as you get older, the years go by quicker and it certainly seems to be the case. I wouldn't mind this season slowing down a bit though because for the most part, we've been raking in the cash. Let's keep it going here with the Broncos and Saints on Thursday Night Football.

The Broncos have quietly put together a fairly decent campaign so far. The Broncos ended their three-game winning streak last week after they fell to the Chargers. The game was dominated by the Chargers though, and the Broncos didn't even score until the fourth quarter when the game was essentially decided. Overall, I won't say they are surprising, but they are playing better football than I expected. Denver is one of those teams that could sneak into the playoffs but isn't quite good enough to be a Super Bowl contender. For example, they have a strong enough defense, and they have a guy under center now who looks like he could be one of the better young quarterbacks in the league. Bo Nix hasn't been lighting the league on fire, but he does have 1,082 yards and five touchdowns. He also has five interceptions and is completing 60% of passes. When you watch him, he has moments where he looks great and others where he looks like a true rookie quarterback. The Saints passing defense isn't anything special, in fact, they are one of the worst in the league so I'd expect Nix to find the holes in their defense and make some progress here. After having a good run defense for the first few weeks, the Saints have sunk down to the bottom half of the league. 

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - NOVEMBER 12: Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints smells a smelling salts packet in the first quarter of the game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on November 12, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

The Saints have had a significantly different season. The Broncos had some continuity, but the Saints have had nothing but issues this year after Week 2. In the first two weeks of the season, New Orleans looked like the best team in the league, scoring 91 points and allowing only 29 points. Since that point, they've allowed 118 points, while scoring only 76 in four games. In fairness, they didn't have Derek Carr last week, but even without him, Spencer Rattler had a decent enough game for his first career start. He is almost certainly getting the start here. The Broncos have had a very dominant defense this season with allowing the fourth fewest points to opponents this season. They have a top-5 pass defense and a decent enough rushing defense. To me that means the team will rely on Alvin Kamara more in this game than anyone else. The Broncos probably recognize that though and are unlikely to offer him a lot of space. With such a good defense, Rattler will struggle to get much going in the passing game.  

This game has the makings of a tightly contested battle, but I will very rarely back an under for a game that is in the 30's. I think the Broncos probably win this one and should do it by more than a touchdown. I lean towards the Saints scoring under 18.5 points in this one and the Broncos scoring over 18.5. I do think that Courtland Sutton has played really well in a few games and I think he will likely get over this yardage prop of 44.5 the Saints don't do a great job of covering the pass, so back Sutton to go over his receiving total. Officially, I'll play this two ways, Sutton over 44.5 yards and Saints under 18.5 total points. 

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