Surprisingly Good Pitchers Can Keep This Score Low

Red Sox vs. Angels, 9:40 ET

I get it. College basketball is on today so who cares about baseball? I care. I care about baseball the entire season. It has historically been one of my most profitable sports and I truly believe if you bet it daily and stick to a few different rules (some of them I share, others I don’t) you can make a good amount of money on it. One personal belief I have about sports betting is that you don’t need to watch the game after you bet it – so I plan to bet on baseball then watch the Final Four. The outcome will be the same no matter if I watch it or not. This bet is being placed on a game between the Red Sox and the Angels. 

The Red Sox came into this season with the expectations as low as possible. Well, maybe not the lowest possible – the expectation was that they would finish last in the division. However, they did get off to a nice start. For stretches last season they looked like they might even fight for a chance in the playoffs. Ultimately they didn’t make it, but they were more competitive than I thought they would be. The problem I have, and reason I don’t think they will end up very good this season is that they did very little to try and improve. One of their better hitters in the lineup last season, Justin Turner, is gone. Sure, they still have Rafael Devers and Trevor Story, but I’m not sure this team will get the job done. Their pitching staff will probably be the downfall of the team, but they are pitching well. Tonight, Garrett Whitlock takes the hill, and he had a nice start against the Mariners at the beginning of the year as he went five innings and allowed just one earned run on three hits. There hasn’t been much experience against Angels hitters, but as you’d expect, Mike Trout has been solid against him. 

FT. MYERS, FLORIDA - MARCH 2: Rafael Devers #11 of the Boston Red Sox rounds the bases after hitting a double during the third inning of a Spring Training Grapefruit League game against the Washington Nationals on March 2, 2024 at jetBlue Park at Fenway South in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)

What are you supposed to do with the Angels? They had the best two players in baseball on their roster for years and made no progress toward the playoffs. They’ve invested in players, they’ve tried to get pitching, they’ve brought in top-tier managers. The combination hasn’t worked. One of the issues has been injury, but some of the issue is that they just aren’t that good of a team, unfortunately. I thought they would finally knock the door down last season, but it didn’t happen. Now they lost Shohei Ohtani to the National League Los Angeles team. We will see what happens this year, but they did get off to a decent enough start at least. Tonight, they are sending out Reid Detmers to the bump. Detmers has mentioned he wants to become the Ace of the Angels and if he pitches like he did in the first game, he will succeed in that goal. He went five innings in his first start and allowed just two hits and one earned run. He did allow three walks which is too many, but he got out of trouble by striking out seven hitters. There hasn’t been much experience against him, but Detmers has held the Red Sox hitters to just a .176 average against him in 17 at-bats.

I think the starting pitching has an edge in this game and if we can avoid the bullpen collapsing, I like the under for the game. Both Whitlock and Detmers could turn in nice performances, and I'm tempted to go with just a first five play on the under, but I think 8.5 is a good line for the full game. Sure, both will need to repeat their first start of the year, but it isn't asking all that much against two decent but not great offensive teams. I'll back under 8.5 for the game. 

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