Surging Carolina Panthers Will Maul Dead Man Walking Dallas Cowboys In NFL Week 15
Given how awesome the NFL Week 15 slate is, it's a little ridiculous that the Dallas Cowboys (5-8) at Carolina Panthers (3-10) Sunday is the first game I'm discussing. That said, I cannot change how I feel, which is Carolina winning, and covering as -2.5 favorites (up to -3), vs. Dallas is the best bet for Week 15.
The fake, or actual, sharps will say this is a "sell-high" spot for the Panthers. I know because that is something I'd say and, judging by my 34-36 record in the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest, I'm a fake sharp. Nevertheless, it's true considering this is the first time Carolina has been a favorite since Week 12 in 2022.
However, the Panthers should be at least -3 favorites Sunday. In fact, I'd bet them up to -3.5 because this is a massive "let-down" spot for the Cowboys, whose season essentially ended Monday. They lost a winnable game to the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-20, on Monday Night Football thanks to a rare muffed block punt with less than 2:00 remaining.
Dallas's season peaked in Weeks 12-13. The Cowboys beat the Washington Commanders 34-26 on the road as +10.5 underdogs in one of the season's biggest upsets with one of the craziest fourth quarters of 2024. Then Dallas beat the god-awful New York Giants 27-20 on Thanksgiving in the most-viewed Turkey Day game ever.
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During the postgame turkey celebration, a jacked-up Cowboys All-Pro pass rusher Micah Parsons said: "I believe we gonna turn it around and make a run." Unfortunately, Parsons and Dem Boys were brought back down to earth by the Bengals Monday. It's tough to get up for a road game against a feisty opponent on short rest after a loss like that.
Adding injury to insult, the Cowboys lost pass rusher DeMarvion Overshown to a gruesome season-ending injury Monday that might sideline him next year too. Overshown has the second-most sacks in Dallas (5.0) behind Parsons, leads the team with eight tackles for a loss, and has Dallas's only defensive touchdown.
Carolina has covered five in a row but is on a three-game losing skid. These losses were to first-place teams: Kansas City Chiefs 30-27 in Week 12, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26-23 two weeks ago, and Philadelphia Eagles 22-16 last week. The Panthers beat the New Orleans Saints 23-22 and New York Giants 20-17 in the two games before their Week 10 bye.
With that in mind, Carolina is playing exactly how I want when betting on a team, regardless of the spread. The Panthers are competitive enough to keep these games but are still hungry for wins. We sports bettors count "covers" as "wins". Yet, "moral victories" aren't a thing in football and teams don't care about covering the spread.
Furthermore, Panthers QB Bryce Young looks like a franchise guy again, and first-year head coach Dave Canales is finally figuring things out after an awful start. Carolina RB Chuba Hubbard is sixth in rushing yards, and WR Adam Thielen is healthy and has 17 catches for 201 yards with 1 TD in his last two games.
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We've seen teams hit their stride late in the season recently and leave fans with a good feeling about their future. Think about the 2022 Detroit Lions. They won eight of their final 10 games and just missed the playoffs. But, with nothing to play for, Detroit spoiled the Green Bay Packers' playoff hopes in a Week 18 upset in Aaron Rodgers' final game at Lambeau Field.
Canales gives off "Dan Campbell vibes." And, with a good offseason, the Panthers can be next year's "playoff sleeper." Even if Carolina is bad again next season, Dallas has the worst "non-Giants" roster in the NFL currently. Cowboys QB Cooper Rush is worse now than Young was earlier this season, and that's reason enough to bet the Panthers -2.5, up to -3.
Prediction: Carolina 26, Dallas 17
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