Super Bowl MVP Betting Angles

Chiefs vs. Eagles, 6:30 ET

"I'm going to Disneyland." I grew up hearing those words always associated with the Super Bowl MVP. I'm not 100% sure they still do it, or say it anymore. I vaguely remember hearing something last year, but I don't think it was on the field. I think there was some sort of commercial or something done around it. Thanks to television, TikTok, and getting older, I can barely remember anything. I suppose it also doesn't matter. It isn't about if they said it, we need to bet on who will say it. 

We probably should break it down by who is most likely if the teams win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have already won three Super Bowl trophies in the past five years. Who hoisted the Super Bowl MVP in each of those games? No surprise, but it was Patrick Mahomes. There is a path that the Chiefs could win the game and he won't be the MVP, but it would be more of an anomaly than the Chiefs just winning the game with Mahomes leading the way. A guy like Chris Jones at 60:1 could have a few tackles for a loss, maybe a forced fumble and a sack. That would certainly vault him to the top of the conversation. Kareem Hunt could run for 150 yards and three touchdowns in the game. Could Trent McDuffie have an interception and a return for a touchdown? Sure, there is that possibility and that 200:1 number looks enticing. The reality is that Mahomes, even in what was his worst statistical season, is still a force on the field. He has been scrambling to keep plays alive in the playoffs. He hasn't had an interception in the playoffs, but he did lose the ball in a fumble once. He has been efficient in passing even if he isn't accumulating a ridiculous amount of yards. This is a tough defense, but if you think the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, like I do, Mahomes at +120 is as good of a bet as any. If you want to eliminate a bit of your risk, just bet on Mahomes at plus money to win the MVP and skip betting on the Chiefs moneyline. You'll still be at risk of him losing if the Chiefs win, but there are such narrow possibilities for other people, that it is worthwhile to play it. 

Dec 29, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) runs off the field after win against the Dallas Cowboys at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

As far as the Eagles, if they win the game, I think it will be due to Saquon Barkley, not Jalen Hurts. Call me a hater, and I probably am, but I'm not a believer in Hurts. I don't think he can, or will, make the big throw when needed. Sure, he can move the ball well on the ground and be elusive, but is that enough? Just consider this, he played 16 of the 17 games this year and had 2,903 yards, 18 touchdown passes, and five interceptions. His QBR was 65.7 for the season which was the best in terms of his ranks. He was 10th in QBR, but he was 20th in passing yards and touchdowns. He does have three passing touchdowns in the playoffs, and has a 70% completion percentage, but he hasn't needed to make many throws. Even in the close game against the Rams, the snow was bad so he didn't need to throw the ball. The market seems to agree with me as Barkley is more of a favorite than Hurts. He is at +260 for the MVP and I think he has proven over and over again in the season and postseason that he is a monster. If the Eagles are going to win this game he has to be the most likely reason. I actually don't mind the number either. One longshot I like from the Eagles is Dallas Goedert at +12000. He is a good tight end and will likely be Hurts security blanket. I could see him getting some very big receptions and potentially a touchdown or two. 

I've already said I like the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl and getting the winning quarterback at plus money is worth a play. Here is what I would do:

• Patrick Mahomes 1.5u +120
• Chris Jones .10u +6000
• Kareem Hunt .25u +6000
• Dallas Goedert .10u +12000
• Saquon Barkley .5u +260