Super Bowl LVIII Rushing Props Include 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Brock Purdy
The kickoff for Super Bowl LVIII is right around the corner but I'm still building my betting portfolio for the Big Game. First, I gave out my four favorite receiving props for Super Bowl 2024. Now, I'm focusing on the ball carriers.
To be clear, I'm not making any life-changing or whale-sized bets with these props. At most, I'd put a quarter-unit per prop given out. For example, let's say your average bet is $100. Then I'd only wager a Pizza Bet — $20 or $25 — on the following …
Super Bowl LVIII Rushing Props
- The odds used are the best available at the time of writing.
San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey UNDER 18.5 rushing attempts (+110) at FanDuel
CMC has attempted 19+ rushes in seven of his 18 regular-season and playoff games in 2023-24. Niners backup RB Elijah Mitchell averaged 6.8 carries per game during the regular season and WR Deebo Samuel averaged 2.5. Plus, the Over 2.5 for Deebo’s rushing attempt prop for Super Bowl LVIII is juiced heavier than the Under. So, the market thinks there’s a better chance Samuel gets three carries than two.
(Kelley L Cox - USA TODAY Sports)
We’ve seen teams overthink their strategies when playing the Chiefs. It’s almost like how Mike Tyson beat his opponents before they ever stepped into the ring with him. Baltimore only ran the ball 16 times versus Kansas City in the AFC title game. The Ravens were third in yards per rush during the regular season.
Only two running backs have carried the ball more than 18 times this season vs. the Chiefs. Las Vegas Raiders RB Zamir White Christmas 2023 and Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon New Year’s Eve. Both teams had backup quarterbacks under center.
_____________________________
San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy UNDER 12.5 RUSH yards (-105) at BetMGM
Pinnacle Sportsbook has Purdy’s rushing yards prop set at 11.5. For the uninitiated, Pinnacle is considered the sharpest shop in the world because it’s known for booking the largest sports bets. Purdy’s rushing attempt prop is 3.5 with heavy juice on the Under across all legal U.S. sportsbooks.
Also, he took former 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo’s starting job when he replaced him against the Miami Dolphins in Week 13 last season. Purdy has run for 13 or more yards in only seven of his 26 games as San Francisco’s primary quarterback. His per-game median is 7 rushing yards.
This should be a popular Super Bowl LVIII player prop. The public saw Purdy run the ball five times for 48 yards vs. the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship and six times for 14 rushing yards vs. the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round.
(Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports)
Purdy had three double-digit rushes in the 2nd half of San Francisco’s comeback win over the Lions two weeks ago. All of those rushes came on scoring drives for the 49ers. The public usually overreacts to recent results in the NFL. Hence, I’m expecting to fade the public with my Under look here. Purdy’s rushing yards prop closed at roughly 5.5 yards in the previous two playoff games.
Finally, I’m betting the Chiefs to win but the Niners are the favorites. Since the market thinks there’s a better chance the 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII perhaps Purdy goes Under his rushing yards prop kneeing the ball to end the game. For what it's worth, this is my favorite prop bet for Super Bowl LVIII.
_____________________________
Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco OVER 3.5 rushing yards on his 1st carry (+100) at DraftKings
Pacheco is eighth among qualifying running backs in yards before contact per rush and 10th in success rate (50.7%). He’s ninth in rushing yards over expectations per attempt, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Pacheco runs against 8-man boxes 12.2% of the time, per Next Gen, which is in the bottom 10 of qualifying RBs. For context, McCaffrey leads the NFL by running against 8-man boxes 36.0% of the time.
(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
The win probability of the +100 odds is 50.0% and Pacheco runs for more than 3.5 yards on his first carry in 52.9% of his games this season (9-for-17). Lastly, San Francisco’s defense is low-key bad at stopping the run. The 49ers are 21st in yards per rush allowed, 23rd in rushing defense success rate, and 26th in defensive rushing EPA/play.
_____________________________
Kansas City Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 6.5 rushing yards (-110) at DraftKings
Pacheco isn’t a "bell cow" running back. He has only carried the ball 20+ times in four of his 37 career games including the regular season and playoffs. Granted, two of those games were this postseason. However, I’m betting Chiefs coach Andy Reid gets Edwards-Helaire a few touches in the Super Bowl.
Kansas City selected Edwards-Helaire with the last pick in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. CEH was injured for last year’s playoffs and didn’t play in Super Bowl 2022. Yet, Edwards-Helaire was part of KC’s Super Bowl 2020 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
(Geoff Burke-USA Today Sports)
He has gained at least 7 rushing yards in six of his seven career playoff games. CEH rushed for 21 yards on 7 carries vs. the Miami Dolphins in an AFC wild-card game. Then Edwards-Helaire had 31 rushing yards on 2 attempts against the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round.
My final factor here is Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon's availability or lack thereof. He's been sidelined by an injury since the middle of December. When asked about McKinnon playing during Super Bowl media week, Kansas City head coach Andy Reid said: "Jerick is not practicing. I’d tell you it’s slim for him to be out there (for the Super Bowl)". If Pacheco gets hurt or is rested after a big gain, CEH is in line for some work.
_____________________________