Super Bowl LVIII Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers
My NFL 2023-24 record for the Circa Million V football handicapping contest, and sides and totals in the playoffs is 60-39-3 (61%).
The matchup we've all been waiting for kicks off Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET when the San Francisco 49ers face the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII. The Chiefs are the reigning Super Bowl champions while the 49ers have been the No. 1 power-rated team for most of the season. Both went through ups and downs this season. Yet, we are getting a Super Bowl between the two most deserving teams.
Kansas City punched its ticket to the Super Bowl by upsetting the 1-seed Baltimore Ravens 17-10 in the AFC championship. Before that, the Chiefs upset the Buffalo Bills 27-24 in the divisional round and hammered the Miami Dolphins 26-7 in an AFC wild-card game.
(Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports)
San Francisco earned a 1st-round bye and home field throughout the NFC playoffs with the best record during the regular season. But, the 49ers rallied from behind in front of their fans to win both playoff games to clinch a Super Bowl berth. The 49ers beat the Green Bay Packers 24-21 in the NFC divisional round before taking down the Detroit Lions 34-31 in the NFC title game.
Super Bowl LVIII Odds: 49ers vs. Chiefs
- Moneyline: San Francisco (-140) | Kansas City (+110)
- Spread: 49ers -2 (-110) | CHIEFS +2 (-110)
- Total — 47.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Unfortunately, I'm on the side of the public and betting the Chiefs (+2) to win their 2nd consecutive Super Bowl. Most people will tell you to just bet on Kansas City's moneyline since the spread usually doesn't matter. However, I push-back on that idea. This is simple but it's hard to score points in professional sports so I'll usually take them when offered.
Regardless, the Chiefs will win Sunday because they have the better quarterback, coach, defense, and special teams. Plus, Kansas City is better in the trenches and in high-leverage situations. The Chiefs have a higher net sack rate and better defensive conversion rates on 3rd-down and in the red zone. The Niners are only favored because of their regular-season scoring margin.
Also, if the 49ers fall behind early, it's unlikely they can mount a comeback. Green Bay and Detroit lost those playoff games as much as San Francisco won them. While we know Patrick Mahomes can throw the Chiefs back into the game. Mahomes has a winning record when trailing double-digits. I don't have the same confidence in Niners QB Brock Purdy.
Furthermore, Kansas City has the perfect defense to match up with San Francisco. The Chiefs have three elite cornerbacks to cover 49ers WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Kansas City ranked 2nd in sacks during the regular season. Aside from Niners LT Trent Williams, the rest of San Francisco's offensive line is meh and Purdy holds on to the ball too long.
Adding to that, San Francisco's defense struggles against the run and if you give Reid a weakness to exploit, you're in trouble. For example, the 49ers are 21st in yards per rush allowed, 23rd in rushing defense success rate, and 26th in defensive rushing EPA/play.
(Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)
We've seen Mahomes lean into this "game manager" role because the Chiefs aren't as explosive as in recent years. Kansas City essentially played "keep away" vs. Baltimore in the AFC title game to reduce the possessions. I'm betting the Chiefs execute the same game plan Sunday and it works because of San Francisco's weak rush defense.
Ultimately, the Chiefs had a harder path to the Super Bowl and the Niners had fortunate turnover-luck the entire season. According to Pro Football Focus, Kansas City had the 4th-toughest strength of schedule and San Francisco's was 23rd. The Chiefs were -11 in turnover margin during the regular season and the 49ers were +10.
Mahomes has no turnovers this postseason and Purdy has gotten lucky due to opponents dropping would-be interceptions. The bottom line is if both teams play their best game Sunday, the Chiefs will come out on top. It's Mahomes' world and we are just living in it.
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