Super Bowl 2023: Patrick Mahomes Will Go UNDER His Passing Yards Prop

PublishedFebruary 10, 2023 11:44 AM EST|UpdatedFebruary 10, 2023 11:44 AM EST

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In my other Super Bowl 2023 prop pieces, I've handicapped whole markets. This includes receiving, rushing, touchdown and game props for both teams that you can find at the bottom.

For the passing prop market, I'm eyeing only one bet: UNDER 294.5 PASSING YARDS FOR KANSAS CITY CHIEFS PATRICK MAHOMES (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook.

While I've crafted out a $100 budget in my bankroll for my other prop breakdowns, I'm only trying to win a half-unit ($50) on the UNDER for Mahomes' passing yards prop.

Word to the wise: I'd wait closer to bet this or any player prop Under for Super Bowl 2023. Typically, the public loves betting Overs. We could get a better number for this prop by waiting closer to kickoff.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop: UNDER 294.5 (-115) in Super Bowl 2023

My rationale for betting Under Mahomes' passing yards is to fade the most obvious Super Bowl 2023 public prop available. Mahomes has thrown for less than 294.5 yards in six of his 13 career playoff games.

Per VSIN, 85% of the money and nearly 70% of the bets placed at DraftKings are on Mahomes' Over for passing yards. This one-way action on Mahomes' Over has steamed this prop from a 290.5-yard opener up to the current number.

Mahomes threw for just 286 yards in his Super Bowl 2020 win over the San Francisco 49ers. He passed for 270 yards in a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the next Super Bowl.

More importantly, Mahomes suffered a high-ankle sprain in the AFC Divisional Round vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars. Also, four Chiefs WRs are on their Super Bowl injury report.

The injuries to Mahomes and several Kansas City WRs suggest to me the Chiefs use more of a run-heavy game-plan. KC RB Isiah Pacheco has gotten a bigger role in the offense as the season has progressed.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes holds his ankle in pain in the AFC divisional playoff game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. (Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Even if the Chiefs wideouts were healthy, the Eagles' secondary would have the edge in this matchup. Travis Kelce is obviously a beast and will get most of Philadelphia's defensive attention.

But, Pro Football Focus (PFF) gives the Chiefs' three projected starting WRs a "below-average" or worse grade in their WR/CB matchups.

Chiefs WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster are solid. But, Eagles CBs Darius Slay and James Bradberry are tied for the 18th-highest graded CBs per PFF.

Philadelphia's defense allowed the 2nd-fewest passing yards to opposing QBs in the regular season despite most of their opponents having to throw in catch-up mode.

At the end of the day, this bet is mostly a "fade the public" play with a dash of "Mahomes' health" and a touch of "Philly's pass defense being nasty".