Super Bowl 2023 Chiefs-Eagles Rushing Props To Bet

PublishedFebruary 10, 2023 4:21 PM EST|UpdatedFebruary 10, 2023 4:21 PM EST

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Rushing props are the 4th of my Super Bowl 2023 gambling extravaganza with the 1st three prop pieces being at the bottom of this post.

Again, I'm not trying to go broke betting the Big Game so I'm using a $100 budget per prop market. It's a $100 budget because $100 is a nice, round number. Fade, follow or pass at your own risk and gamble responsibly.

Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco OVER 11.5 rushing attempts (+105)

Since taking over the 1st-string running back duties in Week 7, Pacheco has carried the ball 12 times in eight of his 13 starts including in the AFC Divisional round vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Most importantly, Andy Reid should follow the Washington Commanders' blueprint for upsetting the Philadelphia Eagles. The Commanders handed the Eagles their 1st loss this season 32-21 by running it 49 times.

Philadelphia has by far the best pass rush in the NFL and the ankle injury to Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is going to reduce his mobility. It would be wise for Reid to keep Mahomes out of harm's way by handing the ball off more.

If the Chiefs run it more then Pacheco will get a bulk of the carries. Pacheco only had 10 carries in the AFC title game but 15 touches when you add catches. Whether or not Reid and Mahomes run the ball more is the gamble.

Philadelphia Eagles RB Boston Scott UNDER 8.5 rushing yards (-120)

This is mostly a fade of the public because everyone is betting Scott's OVER rushing yards prop. Per VSIN, roughly 99% of the action at DraftKings Sportsbook for Scott's rushing yards prop is on the OVER.

All the love for Scott makes sense. He has rushed more at least 9 yards in 10 of his 17 regular and postseason games including three straight.

Scott's carries over the last three games were mostly in garbage time. Two of those games were vs. the New York Giants, whom Scott owns, and the other was vs. the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC title game.

The Niners ran out of QBs when Brock Purdy and Josh Johnson both exited the NFC championship with injuries and weren't a threat. The Eagles shelved 1st-string RB Miles Sanders after the 1st half and Scott got 21 yards on six carries.

Even if the Philly wins, Kansas City isn't going to get stomped out like the Eagles' past two opponents. Philadelphia will need its best players to have great games and I could see Scott not getting a ton of reps.

Finally, Scott does have special teams duties and returns kickoffs for the Eagles. I'm not rooting for this but there's a non-zero chance Scott gets injured on a special teams play. That would setoff the recent trend of gamblers crying for refunds.

Kansas City Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon OVER 2.5 rushing yards on 1st attempt (-150)

McKinnon's gift to Kansas City's offense is his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. McKinnon has 72 rushing attempts this season and is 2nd on the Chiefs with 71 passing targets.

When the Eagles see McKinnon on the field, I'm literally they think "it's a pass play". Until McKinnon rattles off three-plus consecutive carries, Philly will give him lighter boxes to run against.

McKinnon is averaging just 4.0 yards per rush but Philadelphia's defense is 24th in yards per rush allowed at 4.6 and 22nd in adjusted line yards per snap, according to Football Outsiders.

With those rates, there is a chance the Eagles stack the box against McKinnon's 1st run and he still goes Over 2.5 yards.

A gambling sharp nicknamed "Hitman" said on this week's Circles Off podcast from The Hammer Betting Network that professional prop bettors usually lay heavier fig in the Super Bowl because the public stays away from expensive props.

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Under 19.5 rushing yards (-135)

Based on how I think the Chiefs-Eagles game script will look, I don't see Mahomes running the ball much. Sure, Mahomes could use his legs to pick up a 1st down if the Eagles aren't paying attention.

But, Mahomes was clearly affected by a high-ankle sprain he suffered in the AFC Divisional round when facing the Bengals in the AFC title game.

I don't have data on this yet my hunch is this is another prop the public could be betting Over. Mahomes has rushed for more than 19.5 yards in 10 of his 19 games this season.

However, Philadelphia has one of the best front sevens in the NFL and you know they want to deliver some pain to Mahomes should he scramble.

Plus I think the Chiefs win so Mahomes could take a few QB knees at the end of the game to push his rushing yard total down further.