Super Bowl 2023 Chiefs-Eagles Receiving Props: Back Goedert, Fade Toney

PublishedFebruary 8, 2023 12:55 PM EST|UpdatedFebruary 8, 2023 12:55 PM EST

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I'm continuing my week-long handicap of Super Bowl 2023 between the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles by tackling the receiving props today.

To avoid going broke or over-leveraging myself, I'm only using a $100 budget on all the Super Bowl prop or derivative markets I'll be betting.

Keep in mind that I'm using a $100 budget because $100 is a nice, round number. Feel free to bet more, less or nothing on these props and always gamble responsibly.

Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert Over 48.5 receiving yards (-125)

Goedert has gone Over this number in eight of his 14 games played this season including three of the last four. His reception prop is Over/Under 4.5 and the Over is a heavy -150 favorite.

The veteran tight end averages 12.8 yards per reception. Even if Goedert gets hooked and only catches 4 passes, he would clear 48.5 receiving yards based on his averages.

Eagles TE Dallas Goedert drags New York Giants defenders during the NFC Divisional Round at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. (Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

According to Pro Football Focus, Chiefs LB Willie Gay Jr. will defend Goedert and Gay has an 80.8% completion percentage against in pass coverage.

Goedert also gets easier matchups than Chiefs TE Travis Kelce because Eagles have to Pro Bowl WRs: A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

Philadelphia Eagles WR Quez Watkins Under 12.5 receiving yards (-120)

The Under for Watkins’ reception prop is a heavy favorite at -160 while the Over is set at +130. Watkins averages 10.7 yards per reception.

If Watkins only catches 1 pass as the market expects then based on his averages he should go Under 12.5 receiving yards.

Eagles WR Quez Watkins fumbles the ball against Commanders CB Benjamin St-Juste at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. (Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Between Goedert, Smith and Brown, the Eagles have a lot of mouths to feed and Watkins could be the odd man out at Super Bowl 2023. Also, Philly has three RBs that could get carries in the Super Bowl.

Watkins has gone Under 12.5 receiving yards in four of his past six games. He's caught zero passes in the playoffs and has only 1 target in the NFC Divisional and Conference rounds combined.

Kansas City Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney Under 14.5 longest reception (-125)

Toney's longest reception has been greater than 14.5 yards in just two of his 11 games played this season for both the Chiefs and New York Giants. Neither was in the playoffs.

He caught 5 passes for 36 yards in the AFC Divisional round vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars but the longest reception was only for 9 yards.

Toney was on the field for 29% of KC's offensive snaps in the AFC Divisional round and 6% in the AFC title game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals.

Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney fumbles the ball while defended by Broncos LB Alex Singleton at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Also, Toney has been one of the most injury-prone wideouts since being drafted in the 1st round by the Giants last season. He has played more than 40% of the snaps in one game this season.

Toney has only started eight games over the past two seasons. He missed practice all last week with injuries to his hamstring and ankle and is "questionable" for the Super Bowl.

There are several injuries to Kansas City's WR corp. Out of all of them, I'm the least confident in Toney's ability to play through injury.

Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco Under 16.5 receiving yards (-115)

Pacheco has been the Chiefs' 1st-string running back since Week 7 and has started 13 consecutive games since. He's gone Over 16.5 receiving yards in just five of those 13 contests.

According to VSIN, all of the money and action is on the Over for Pacheco's receiving yards prop. The number has been steamed from 14.5 up to the current number.

This is due in part to recency bias and Kansas City having a banged-up WR room. Pacheco caught 5 passes for 59 yards in the AFC Championship.

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco carries the ball vs. the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (David Eulitt/Getty Images)

I don't have numbers/results to support this but every professional NFL bettor recommends playing more Unders than Overs in the Super Bowl.

Given all the injuries to the Chiefs' pass catchers, it would make sense Pacheco is involved in the passing game. But, knowing NFL gambling like I do, it would make more sense if 99% of the bets on Pacheco to go Over 16.5 receiving yards to lose.