Suns Will Live To Fight Another Day By Beating Nuggets Thursday
The Denver Nuggets (3-2) have the Phoenix Suns (2-3) on the brink of elimination as they visit the Footprint Center Thursday for Game 6 of the 2023 Western Conference Semifinals.
Denver crushed Phoenix 118-102 at home in Game 5 to take control of the series. Nikola Jokic messed around and got a triple-double and had game-highs in points (29), rebounds (13), and assists (12).
Nuggets C Nikola Jokic shoots a runner during Game 5 of the 2023 Western Conference Semifinals vs. the Suns at the Ball Arena in Denver. (Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)
Devin Booker cooled off Tuesday by scoring 28 points and shot only 8-for-19 from the field. Kevin Durant chipped in with 26 points in Game 4 but it was on an inefficient 41.7% shooting (10-for-24).
According to VSIN, roughly two-thirds of the action at DraftKings Sportsbook is on Denver as of 10 a.m. ET Thursday. My question for people betting on the Nuggets is "What gives you confidence they can win on the road?"
Denver Nuggets At Phoenix Suns Game 6 odds
Betting odds for the Nuggets at the Suns for Game 6 Thursday, May 11th from DraftKings as of 10:30 a.m. ET.
During the regular season, the Nuggets were 19-22 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) on the road with a -3.1 SU margin. Denver was 6-11 SU as road underdogs this season.
In these playoffs, the Nuggets are 1-3 SU and ATS on the road. They are 0-2 SU and ATS in both games as road 'dogs as well. The simple answer for this is Denver has a bad bench and role players perform better at home typically.
In fact, Phoenix's bench is out-scoring Denver's bench by 23.2-20.2 points per game (PPG) in this series. There's a fake narrative that this Nuggets team is deeper than the Suns when they aren't.
Suns SG Landry Shamet puts up a 3-pointer shot over Nuggets SF Bruce Brown in Game 4 of the NBA Western Conference Semifinals at Footprint Center in Phoenix. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
For instance, do you really think Denver backups Bruce Brown, Jeff Green, and Christian Braun are much better than T.J. Warren, Terrence Ross, and Landry Shamet? My response is "They aren't."
Warren averaged 31.0 PPG in the 2020 NBA Orlando bubble regular-season games while playing for the Pacers. Ross is a good 3-point shooter that can heat up like a microwave and the same goes for Shamet.
Furthermore, call it a "hunch," but Booker and Durant will bounce back at home Thursday. Booker is averaging 34.6 PPG on 60.0% shooting and KD missed a bunch of shots he usually makes on Tuesday.
Brown contests a Booker jump shot during Game 5 of the Western Conference Semifinals at the Ball Arena. (Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)
Granted, Booker and Durant probably need to score 75 combined points for the Suns to keep their season alive. However, I like their chances and all Phoenix needs to survive is some help from the role players.
They say "A playoff series doesn't start until the road team wins". Well, this series won't start Thursday.
BET: Suns -3 (-110), up to -3.5
Odds for the Phoenix Suns Thursday in Game 6 vs. Denver from DraftKings in the 2023 Western Conference Semifinals.