Suns Vs. Nuggets: NBA 2023 Western Conference Semis Betting Breakdown
The 4-seed Phoenix Suns and 1-seed Denver Nuggets both wrapped up their 1st-round series Wednesday. DraftKings Sportsbook wasted no time to drop the Suns-Nuggets 2023 NBA Western Conference Semifinals playoff series odds.
Phoenix Vs. Denver Western Conference Semifinals Series Price
Denver ranks 2nd in net rating thus far the playoffs, Phoenix is 3rd and both teams won their 1st-round series 4-1. Each team played in series-clinching nail-biters.
The Suns held off the 5-seed LA Clippers in a 136-130 Game 5 and the Nuggets eked past the Minnesota T-Wolves 112-109 Wednesday. The stars showed up for the Suns and Nuggets in the 1st-round.
Devin Booker averaged 37.2 points per game (PPG) on 60.2% shooting with 6.4 assists and 5.0 rebounds vs. the Clippers. Kevin Durant scored 28.4 PPG on 51.8% shooting with 7.6 rebounds and 6.2 assists.
Nikola Jokic put up a 28-17-12 triple-double in Denver's 1st-round clinch game. Jokic averaged 26.2 PPG, 12.4 rebounds and 9.0 vs. the Timberwolves. Playoff Bubble Jamal Murray reemerged, scoring 27.2 PPG on .471/.429/.909 shooting.
Jamal Murray reacts after fouling Minnesota PG Mike Conley at Ball Arena. (Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Network).
For what it's worth, these teams split their regular-season series 2-2 and Denver was 3-1 against the spread (ATS). But, Jokic missed both missed both Suns-Nuggets meetings after Phoenix traded for Durant.
Suns-Nuggets Series Handicap
Initially, I didn't agree with the betting market's love for Phoenix. It was just too soon and too unknown for me. KD played eight meaningless regular season games and the Suns mortgaged their depth for him.
Durant and Chris Paul are injury prone and Phoenix big Deandre Ayton has't developed into the star I thought he'd be. Another one of my concerns about the Suns entering the playoffs was its lack of depth. But, Denver's bench kind of sucks.
Look at the difference between the Nuggets' starters and their backups
The Denver Nuggets' on/off adjusted net rating for most of their 2022-23 roster. (Courtesy of CleaningTheGlass.com)
To be fair, I'm not sure the benches are going to matter. It's the playoffs so the starters are going to eat up most of the minutes and usage. And, if we are comparing just the starters, the Suns have the edge.
Gimme Murray over CP3 and Jokic over Ayton. Murray is in his prime and Paul is not. Jokic is a two-time NBA MVP and I actually think Ayton is a disappointment.
That said, Ayton is shooting better than Jokic 61.5-60.3% and out-rebounding him 12.0-11.3 in their 13 regular season head-to-head meetings.
Jokic put up bigger numbers than Ayton in their 2021 playoff series. But, Ayton out-shot Jokic 61.0-47.7% and the Suns swept the Nuggets. Denver was missing Murray and Phoenix didn't have Durant.
Suns' big Ayton shoots the ball over Nuggets big Jokic at the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. (Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)
Also, Booker is going to light up Nuggets SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. I cannot stress how big this mismatch is. Booker dump-trucked the Clippers in the 1st round. Granted, LAC was missing Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
The Nuggets don't have Kawhi and George either. The best they can do is wing Aaron Gordon is but Gordon will have his hands full with Durant. Gordon can't help off KD even if he wanted to.
The bottom line is now that I've seen Phoenix in action, the Suns my No. 1 power-rated team in these NBA playoffs. If Denver had a better defense then I'd give the Nuggets the edge.
However, Suns-Nuggets will be won by the team that executes better offensively. Two-time NBA MVP Jokic and Playoff Murray won't out-score KD and Booker.
BET: Suns (-130) to beat the Nuggets in their series at DraftKings
The Phoenix Suns' series odds vs. the Denver Nuggets in the 2023 NBA Western Conference Semifinals from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Check out Geoff's NBA betting show on the OutKick Bets Podcast feed for the audio versions of the handicaps.