Sucker Line Of NFL Week 1: Minnesota Vikings As Road Favorites Vs. New York Giants

In the words of the Blackjack dealer from Vegas Vacation, (instead of betting the Minnesota Vikings to beat the New York Giants), "Here's an idea: why don't you give me half the money you were going to bet, then we'll go out back, I'll kick you in the nuts, and we'll call it a day?" 

Simply put, you must be a psychopath to bet the Vikings and QB Sam Darnold as road favorites vs. any NFL team. On FanDuel as of Monday, September 2, Minnesota is a -1.5 favorite and has a -126 moneyline at MetLife Stadium Sunday in Week 1. 

Vikings QB Sam Darnold makes pre-snap adjustments in an NFL preseason game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. (Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

Minnesota won seven games last season, New York won six, and the market expects them to finish near each other in the standings again in 2024. The Vikings had a 6.5-win total with juice on the Over and the Giants had a 6.5-win total with juice on the Under. 

A team with a 6.5-win total shouldn't be road favorites over another team with a 6.5-win projection. NYG won't be that bad again, and Minnesota is likely worse. I mean what's the downgrade from former QB Kirk Cousins to Darnold? Five to seven points? I.e. the Vikings are going from a Pro Bowl quarterback to a draft bust. 

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants Odds (FanDuel) 

• Moneyline: Minnesota (-126) | New York (+108)
• Spread (ATS): Vikings -1.5 (-110) | GIANTS +1.5 (-110) 
• Total — 41.5 — Over (-112) | Under (-108)

New York's offensive line gave up an NFL-worst 85 sacks. The next closest team(s) allowed 65 sacks. The Giants' pass protection should improve with natural regression. However, they signed three offensive linemen in free agency: RT Jermaine Eluemunor and guards Greg Van Roten and Jon Runyan. 

NYG's most productive receiver last season was Darius Slayton, who caught 50 passes for a team-high 770 yards and tied for a team-high 4 TD catches. But, the Giants took WR Malik Nabers with the sixth pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, who New York head coach Brian Daboll calls "a dog". 

More importantly, the Giants will have a better defensive scheme this season. They replaced defensive coordinator (DC) Don Martindale with Shane Bowen, formerly working in the same role for the Tennessee Titans from 2021-23. In Martindale’s two seasons as New York’s DC, the Giants had the first- and second-highest blitz rate in the NFL. 

New York Giants pass rusher Brian Burns chasing Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud during an NFL preseason game at NRG Stadium in Texas. (Tim Warner/Getty Images)

The Titans had a bottom-10 blitz rate in Bowen’s three years in Tennessee. Instead of sending the blitz, the Giants will "contain and pursue" more to avoid giving up the big play. New York's secondary isn't good enough to leave "on an island" while sending the blitz. 

Nonetheless, the Giants could potentially have a top-10 front seven this season after trading for pass rusher Brian Burns this offseason. With that in mind, I’m expecting Bowen to make Darnold matriculate down the field to score. If Darnold drops back six or seven times in a drive, he will make a crucial mistake. 

Related, Don't Overthink It: Stay Away From Betting Minnesota Vikings Futures In 2024

Furthermore, the Vikings were -3 home favorites when they lost to the Giants 31-24 in the 2022-23 NFC Wild Card Game. That Minnesota team was better than this year’s team and this year’s NYG squad is probably better, if not the same, as the 2022 team. 

The only good player missing from New York’s roster that beat the Vikings in the 2023 NFC playoffs is RB Saquon Barkley. That said, running back is a devalued position in the 2024 NFL, and Nabers has more talent than any skill-position player from the 2022 Giants.

Finally, I'm giving New York an edge in coaching. NFL talking heads think Minnesota head coach Kevin O'Connell will make Darnold a competent starter. Daboll already did that with Giants QB Daniel Jones, who's god-awful, but still better than Darnold.  

O'Connell and Daboll were both hired in 2022. Since then, the Giants are 22-13-1 ATS, and the Vikings are 14-17-4 ATS. Despite having a worse roster these past two years, Daboll has a better ATS record. How a team performs ATS is the definition of underperforming and exceeding expectations. 

Prediction: Giants 20, Vikings 17 

• As long as New York is a 1.5-3-point underdog, this is a great 6-point "teaser" leg. The Giants' spread will be one of my five Circa Million VI Week 1 picks, and they are a 1.1-unit bet.

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