Suck It Up: BET Browns Plus The Points In Week 10 At Ravens
You need a strong case to bet against the Baltimore Ravens (7-2) right now. The Ravens look like the best team in the NFL ahead of their Week 10 divisional matchup against the Cleveland Browns (5-3).
Baltimore is on a 4-game winning streak with a 3-1 against the spread (ATS) record over that span. The Ravens boat-raced the Seattle Seahawks 37-3 in Baltimore last week. They made a statement in a 38-6 beatdown of the Detroit Lions in Week 7.
Cleveland, on the other hand, is having a weird season. Deshaun Watson has been mediocre, at-best, in his 2nd season as the Browns QB. Watson has been in and out of the lineup since Week 4. Baltimore crushed Cleveland 28-3 in Week 4 with Watson on the sidelines.
But, what has been a weakness for the Browns in recent seasons — their defense — has turned into a strength under 1st-year defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. Cleveland leads the NFL in defensive success rate and expected points allowed per play.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens Week 10
The 1st rule of betting on the NFL is you "always bet the underdog in AFC North games." Since 2018, the 'dogs in AFC North games are 41-22-1 ATS. I've broken this rule twice already this season and it cost me both times.
Also, since 2021, the Ravens are 1-6-1 ATS the games following a double-digit win. Baltimore was -6 home favorites vs. Seattle last week. But, I make the Browns two points better than the Seahawks on a neutral-field so there's value on Cleveland +6.5 here.
Nfeloapp.com says the market only makes the Ravens 1.9 points better than the Browns on a neutral-field. Baltimore should get a 3-point boost for being the home team in Week 10, at most. So where are the other 1.6 points coming from?
My guess is recency bias in the NFL betting market. The Ravens look like the best team in the league entering Week 10. Their victories over the Lions and Seahawks are two of the most impressive games any team has played this season.
However, Cleveland pass rusher Myles Garrett is the best player on the field. Garrett sacked Lamar Jackson once in Week 4 and has sacked Baltimore's QB in five consecutive Browns-Ravens meetings.
As long as Watson doesn't commit any stupid turnovers, Cleveland's defense should keep the Browns in this game. Last week, albeit vs. the lowly Arizona Cardinals, Watson had his 2nd-best game of the season. If Watson builds upon his impressive Week 9 performance, they will upset Baltimore in Week 10.