Suck It Up And BET Jets To Cover Vs. Patriots In NFL Week 3
Everyone is afraid of the boogeyman (Bill Belichick) ahead of the New England Patriots' (0-2) NFL Week 3 matchup vs. the New York Jets (1-1). The world-opener for Patriots-Jets this summer after acquiring Aaron Rodgers was NYJ -3.5. Now that Jets QB Zach Wilson is under center, New England is road favorites of -3 (+100) at PointsBet.
There is some logic to this line movement. Patriots QB Mac Jones is 4-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. Wilson and the Jets. Wilson has a 50.9% completion rate with 2/7 TD/INT and a 50.6 QB Rating. Through the 1st three weeks of the season, Wilson is worst QB in the NFL.
New York Jets QB Zach Wilson evades New England Patriots LB Ja'Whaun Bentley at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
However, outside of QB, the Jets are clearly the better team. NYJ has a better defense and better playmakers. New England has a slightly better offensive line. But, this is neutralized by the fact that the Patriots have two starting offensive linemen "questionable" to play in Week 3.
One of the biggest trends sighted in NFL Week 1 were how poorly road favorites did in divisional games. Well, since 2020, road favorites vs. divisional foes in September are 8-15-1 ATS. Plus, since 1989, 0-2 teams that are road favorites of -3 or less in Week 3 are 3-8 SU and ATS.
Patriots at Jets in NFL Week 3 (PointsBet)
Betting odds for the New England Patriots at New York Jets in NFL Week 3 from PointsBet as of Wednesday, Sept. 20th at 1 p.m. ET.
If you do the 6-Point Flip Rule for home-field advantage, you'll see that we are getting a great price on the Jets. This line is saying the Patriots would be -9 in this game if they were the home team. In Week 2, the Dallas Cowboys were -9 at home vs. the Jets. The Patriots are leagues below the Cowboys from a power rating perspective.
Also, I'm completely throwing out the results of Jets-Cowboys last week. New York had a short week coming off an emotional home win on Sept. 11th against a divisional bully after losing Rodgers to a torn Achilles. I.e. it was an epically bad spot for the Jets.
And I know you're going to laugh when you read this, but the Jets played the Patriots tougher last year. In 2021, New England beat New York 25-6 and 54-13 in their two meetings. Last season, the Patriots beat the Jets 22-17 and 10-3. In the latter, New England needed a walk-off punt return TD to win the game.
Furthermore, New York's defense sacked Jones 12 times last season (six in each meeting) and only forced one turnover. If the Jets can pressure Jones as much in Week 3, I'm confident New York will have a couple of takeaways. Wilson also threw for a career-high 355 yards vs. the Patriots in their 1st meeting last year.
Finally, everyone is betting New England because Belichick owns Zach Wilson and New York got crushed last week vs. the Cowboys. We can be on the same side as the sportsbooks because they'll be rooting for New York to cover against New England.