Suarez And Phillies Will Coast To Victory Once Again

Mets vs. Phillies, 6:40 ET

It was a losing day yesterday as I went 0-1-1 for the day. Not terrible, but not ideal either. Sometimes you lose and learn nothing, but yesterday, I think I learned something that may help me make money in the future. Sometimes a guy just doesn't perform well at home or on the road. I think that I identified one of those performers yesterday in my loss as Slade Cecconi was bad for his second home start. If that allows me to fade his home starts and make money, I'll take the one loss because I think we will get a strong return on investment. I'm headed across the country for this play as the Mets take on the Phillies - hopefully the lessons I've already learned pay off in this one. 

The Mets have been a fairly average club for the first forty games of the campaign. They are hitting just .233, which isn't among the worst averages for this year, but it also isn't one of the best. They have 172 runs scored, and while that comes out to four runs per game, it is very much in line with a lot of the other .500 clubs. They only have hit 41 homers this season, again not far off of competition performances, but Pete Alonso has nine of the home runs for the Mets. A quarter of the team's power is coming from one guy. I'd have to check team by team, but that seems a bit high for most clubs. The Mets pitching staff has been pretty good this season with a 3.72 ERA. That is one of the better team ERAs, currently sitting at 11th in the league. It is probably a big reason that they aren't buried further with losses. What they are doing very well is not allowing home runs, in fact, they are tied with the Nationals (of all teams) for fewest home runs allowed. Today they send out Joey Lucchesi for his first game of the 2024 season. Lucchesi pitched last season for only a portion of the year. He had five starts to begin the season and came back with four starts to end the year. Although it wasn't a long campaign for him, he did pitch well with 46.2 innings and 15 earned runs allowed. He did not face the Phillies last season, and the last time he faced them was 2021. He went two innings and allowed one hit while striking out three hitters. 

QUEENS, NEW YORK - JULY 2: Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets on second base against the San Francisco Giants at Citi Field on July 2, 2023 in Queens, NY. (Photo by Andy Kuno/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images)

The Phillies have been the best team in baseball for about a month now. At this point in the season, they are 30-13 with a 15-7 record at home. That is more wins right now than any other team. Since April 15th, they are 22-5. That is an insane run and they really don't look like they are showing signs of slowing down. In that stretch, they've had two separate winning streaks of seven games in this span as well. The team is hitting .259, third best in the league, and they have scored 222 runs, good for second best in the Majors. They are fifth in home runs and fourth in stolen bases showing that they can blast homers and manufacture runs. The pitching staff has been equally impressive. They have the fourth-lowest team ERA at 3.19 and are tied for first in complete-game shutouts. I'm not quite sure if that is a great thing for them long-term, but clearly, the starters are taking care of business and the bullpen is handling it when they need to. One of the best pitchers in the game right now is Ranger Suarez, who takes the ball today. Suarez is 7-0 on the season, leading the MLB in wins. In fact, he only has one no decision, and the Phillies won that game as well, meaning they are 8-0 when he starts. He has allowed a total of nine earned runs over 54 innings this season and he has the best WHIP in baseball at 0.72. Mets hitters haven't performed well against him either with a .190 average over 79 at-bats. 

This is a game that I think the Phillies will win once again. They are the better team, with the better starter, against a starter returning from the injured list. My guess is that Lucchesi will be on a pitch limit as they ease him back into the fold. I think the Mets are going to lose this game by at least two runs, so I'm going to take the Phillies run line in this game. Grab the Phillies -1.5 at +110. If you're looking for a different angle, I think Mets under 3.5 is a good look too, but it is at -160. 

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