Stupid NFL Draft 2024 Bets Worth Making If You Can't Help Yourself
I hate betting drafts and the 2024 NFL Draft (Thursday, April 25th to Saturday, April 27th) is the hardest to bet on. I made money in 2022 but got crushed last year. Drafts, more so than the games themselves, are "information-based".
That said, I subscribe to a theory in the sports betting space that front offices are more tight-lipped this year for a couple of reasons.
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First, the NFL wants the draft to be more of an event, and the suspense around who’s going where will improve the TV ratings.
Second, the NFL doesn’t want information leaked since it’s in business with sportsbooks, which could create a conspiratorial atmosphere around the draft. Regardless, there isn’t as much information about the 2024 NFL Draft as in previous years.
I’ll "show my math", so to speak, but I’m more or less just guessing about my NFL draft bets rather than using actionable intel or matchup-based analysis. Nonetheless, I love the draft and will be watching, so why not spice it up with some Pizza Bets? I.e. don’t wager life-changing money if you decide to follow my bets below.
NFL Draft 2024 Betting Card
The odds chosen are the best available as of 1:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, April 24th.
Brock Bowers - To Be Selected by Which Team in the 2024 NFL Draft?: New York Jets (+180) at DraftKings
Originally, I figured the Jets would be taking an offensive lineman with their 1st pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. NYJ ranked 30th in pass-block win rate and 29th in rush-block win rate last season, per ESPN. Yet, this offseason, the Jets signed veteran tackles Tyron Smith from the Dallas Cowboys and Morgan Moses from the Baltimore Ravens. Both are long in the tooth. Smith is entering his 14th NFL season and Moses, year 11.
These guys aren’t long-term solutions, but New York is in "win-now" mode since Aaron Rodgers isn’t getting any younger. Furthermore, the Green Bay Packers not using 1st-round picks to give Rodgers help, allegedly drove a wedge between Aaron and his previous team. So, the Jets will either consult Rodgers on what to do with the 10th overall pick or draft someone who can help Rodgers.
Georgia Bulldogs TE Brock Bowers is widely considered to be the best tight end prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
NFL.com says that New York’s biggest position of need is "tight end". With that in mind, Bowers going 10th to the Jets at DraftKings (+180) is a bet worth making. For years, draft analysts have been projecting Bowers as the 1st tight end off the board in 2024. Bowers is a two-time national champion, three-time All-American, and two-time John Mackey Award winner for college football’s most outstanding tight end.
New York has a Super Bowl roster if Rodgers can stay healthy. The Jets defense has a top-three ceiling with a top-10 floor. They already have a stud No. 1 WR in Garrett Wilson, running back isn’t a "premier position" anymore, and the nine teams drafting ahead of New York have bigger needs than a tight end. My biggest concern about this bet is the Jets trading back and another team, like the Cincinnati Bengals, drafting Bowers instead.
But, that’s gambling, isn’t it?
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1st Defensive Player Selected: Byron Murphy II (+245) at DraftKings
According to ESPN’s Joe Fortenbaugh via X, "Texas DT Byron Murphy was 14/1 to be the first defensive player off the board late last week. He's now in the +175 to +300 range". Several NFL draft experts, including ESPN’s Adam Schefter, The Ringer’s Danny Kelly, and NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah say Murphy is moving up teams’ draft boards.
Former ESPN NFL draft insider, Todd McShay, went on Barstool Sports’ Pardon My Take (published Monday, April 22nd) and said: "The more people I’ve talked to in the league, the more I get the sense Byron Murphy, defensive tackle from Texas, could be … a surprise in the top-10".
As of Wednesday, Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner is the favorite at DraftKings to be the 1st defensive player drafted. GrindingTheMocks.com lists Turner’s "expected draft position" at No. 10, four spots ahead of Murphy. The Atlanta Falcons are projected to draft a defensive player, specifically Turner, with the 8th pick Thursday.
Texas Longhorns DT Byron Murphy runs the 40-meter dash during the 2024 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indiana. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
This makes sense because the Falcons already have two good defensive tackles on the roster, Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata. However, Murphy (-135) has better odds at FanDuel to be a top-10 pick than Turner (+100). Plus, Atlanta has a 3-4 defensive scheme (three interior defensive linemen, two edge rushers, and two linebackers) under 1st-year head coach Raheem Morris. Meaning, there’s room for Murphy on this defense.
Morris witnessed 1st-hand what a disruptive defensive tackle can do for a defense. He served as the Los Angeles Rams’ defensive coordinator from 2021-23 and coached future Hall of Fame DT Aaron Donald. The defensive tackle has become a "premier position" in recent years. The Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders signed DTs Chris Jones and Christian Wilkins to nine-figure deals this offseason.
Given all this circumstantial evidence, there’s a strong case for a bet to be made on Byron Murphy being the 1st defensive player selected in the 2024 NFL Draft.
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Total Number of Draft (1st) Day Trades at DraftKings: UNDER 6.5 (-200)
I'm looking at this market similar to Super Bowl props. Typically, the value is on the bets with expensive odds because the public always wants to "bet a little to win a lot". Granted, there is a lot more "public money" in the Super Bowl prop markets than in the NFL draft, but the point remains.
Think of bets such as, "No safety will be scored", "No overtime will be played", etc. Sure, you'll have to wager a lot of money to win a little. Nevertheless, those bets usually win. There has been a ton of trade rumors in the buildup to the 2024 NFL Draft.
The Houston Texans traded with the Arizona Cardinals for 3rd pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to select edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
The Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Chargers could trade the 4th and 5th picks to teams desperate to draft a quarterback. Heck, I wrote about the possibility of the New York Giants trading up to draft Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy. Hence, public bettors will be attracted to the "OVER 6.5 (+165) draft day trades" line.
Yet, according to the Associated Press via Spectrum News 1 out of Rochester, New York: "Over the past five drafts, there have been 28 trades during the first day of the draft that included first-round picks, with five of those deals involving picks in the top 10". Basically, the implied win probability of -200 odds is 66.7% and there's a 70% chance fewer than six 1st-day draft trades happen Thursday.
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Who Will Be Drafted First? Adonai Mitchell (+150) over Xavier Worthy at DraftKings
This is a battle between Texas Longhorns wide receivers. Xavier Worthy (-190) is the favorite over Adonai Mitchell (+150) because Worthy has the fastest 40-meter dash ever in the NFL Scouting Combine at 4.21 seconds. Also, Worthy is a two-time first-team All-Big XII player in 2021 and 2023 and led Texas in receptions (75) and receiving yards (1,014) last season.
Despite that, Mitchell has a higher "expected draft position" at GrindingTheMocks.com (27.7) than Worthy (34.3). Worthy's draft position at FanDuel is Over/Under 28.5 and Mitchell's Over/Under is 27.5. NFL.com has a slightly higher draft grade for Mitchell (6.35-6.29). Maybe I'm guilty of doing what I said not to above, but I'll take +150 odds for Mitchell to go ahead of Worthy.
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