Struggling Pitchers Should Allow Plenty Of Runs

Cubs vs. Marlins, 7:10 ET

It was a nice day for us yesterday as we were able to pick up two units on the games that I played. In the first one, we took the total to go under in the Rays vs. Athletics. This one wasn't much of a sweat, but as I mentioned with a low total of 7.5 runs it was nice to not have to worry about any sort of random error. Niether team is very good offensively, so it was a fairly obvious pick. The other game was even easier as the Guardians didn't score a single run in the game, making our team total under 3.5 runs a safe bet. In fairness, I suggested a bet on Jose Ramirez to go over 1.5 total bases and he was walked three times (which I still think should count, but that's a different story for a different day). Hopefully tonight we can replicate that success as the Cubs take on the Marlins.

There comes a point in each season when you just have to accept or realize that maybe your team isn't that good. That's what the Cubs should have been thinking about around June when they were freefalling and looked like the lack of offseason moves were going to keep them as a middle class club within the National League Central. They did make some moves at the trade deadline, but rather than trading for prospects - which I don't advocate they do - they traded away Christoper Morel to get back Isaac Paredes. This was a move for the future, which again, no real objection, but why not trade away someone like Cody Belligner or others on the team that could give you some sort of potential return. I'm not sure if they thought they still had a chance to make the postseason, or exactly what the idea here was. Either way, they are coming into this series with a record two games under .500 and sitting 5.5 games back of the Wild Card. 5.5 games isn't that far back, but they still need to get in front of four other teams to take the final Wild Card spot. One guy that isn't really helping is Kyle Hendricks who has struggled all year. For the season, he is 3-10 with a 6.35 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Hendricks has been a mainstay in the Cubs rotation for years, but obviously has been brutal this time around. He has put together some nice starts this month, going 11 innings in two starts and allowing a total of three earned runs, but it probably is too little, too late. He faced the Marlins earlier in the year and was tagged for four earned runs over four innings. This is a different Marlins club than the last time Hendricks faced them, but I'm not sure he is that much of a different pitcher.

PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 12:  Seiya Suzuki #27 of the Chicago Cubs celebrates after hitting a home run in the seventh inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates during opening day at PNC Park on April 12, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

The Marlins are not technically out of the playoff race just yet, but there are just a few days before that becomes a reality. They are currently the worst team in the National League, at least as far as the records indicate, and only ahead of the White Sox for fewest wins in baseball. They remain one of the strangest franchises in all of baseball. Occasionally they put together seasons out of nowhere in which they perform well and even make the playoffs. Then almost immediately they follow that season up with a disaster. It will be surprising to see if they can make a jump forward next year, but as of now, most signs are not indicating that will happen. Tonight, they have Max Meyer on the hill. Meyer is making just his ninth start of the season and after putting together a good April, he hasn't been able to find the groove. In his first three starts of the season in April, he went 17 innings and allowed four earned runs. He has allowed four earned runs at least in all of his four August starts. The Marlins have only won one of his starts this month, a 7-6 win over the Padres. Meyer has never faced the Cubs, but he hasn't faced a lot of these other teams and they have rocked him as well.

I think this is a game that should see a lot of runs. It isn't a great feeling deciding to take an over 8 when you have two terrible offenses at work, but the Cubs can find ways to score runs and did so against the Tigers. They have been bad on the road this season, but maybe they can get to Meyer who clearly has shown he is struggling lately. Hendricks has pitched better of late, but I don't need him to allow 10 earned ro something, if he can allow three or four we should be fine here. I'll back over 8 in this one.