Strong Cubs Hurler Will Lead Them To First Five Victory

Cubs vs. Rays, 6:50 ET

Wasn’t the most ideal day for me yesterday as I went 0-1-1, but it wasn’t a disaster. Sometimes you need to trust instincts rather than force plays. I’ll give you two examples. I thought the Marlins would win (I mentioned that in my article about them and the Mets) but I don’t exactly enjoy gambling on the few times the Marlins will win. So, I went with the total instead and fell just short. Another one, I was looking at the Washington Mystics playing the Atlanta Dream. The Mystics were 0-12 to start the season and the Dream were 5-4. With the Dream playing at home, I thought it would be a hard game for the Mystics to win, but judging past results, they were teetering on a win and I should’ve taken the points instead of laying them. I lost out on that one because I didn’t trust my gut and I forced the play. Even laying off would’ve been better. Live and learn, that’s the importance of bankroll management. I am going to trust my instincts in today’s game as the Cubs take on the Rays in Tampa Bay.

The Cubs went from being a team that looked like they had a real shot at being a competitive playoff team, to a team that looks like they can barely beat anyone. Yesterday I talked about the number of teams in baseball that have somewhere around .500 records. The Cubs (and the Rays, actually) are one of those teams. Right now they sit at a 32-35 record, so a sweep would propel them to a .500 record. One major concern is that the team doesn’t seem capable of winning on the road as they are just 14-22 for the season. Yes, the Cubs have dealt with injuries, but so have a lot of squads. On May 1st, they were 19-12. Since then, they have gone just 13-23. That isn’t all injury related, some of that is bad baseball. Still, the Cubs have already said they will invest at the deadline (we will see) because they have too much invested in the big league club to "wait until next year." If the Cubs do make the playoffs, they have a good shot because they aren’t overly reliant on the long ball, and they have three plus arms in the rotation, including one that starts today, Javier Assad. Assad has produced a 4-2 record with a 2.74 ERA, good for 12th in the league, and a 1.22 WHIP. Looking at his splits, he is significantly better at home than on the road. At home, he has a 1.67 ERA, and on the road it balloons up to 3.68. To expand that a bit, nine of the 16 earned runs he has allowed on the road have come in his past two outings against the Reds and Cardinals. The Rays don’t really have any experience against Assad that is worth mentioning. 

Tampa Bay Rays RHP Aaron Civale delivers a pitch vs. the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park in Michigan. (David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports)

Just when you think the Rays franchise is down and out, they start to show some signs of life. I maintain that no franchise has done more with less than Tampa Bay. A recent Athletic article listed the Rays as one of the worst franchises in baseball according to players, because they always trade players away prior to paying them. The reality is they have a low attendance, and even when they trade someone away, it seems like someone else is ready to step up and take his place. That hasn’t quite been the case this season as they don’t have Shane McClanahan due to injury, and they traded away Tyler Glasnow. Those two arms would’ve made a huge difference for the club, and are obviously hard to replace. Unfortunately for them, no one has been able to truly fill the gap. Tonight’s starter, Aaron Civale, looked like he might have the ability when the Rays traded for him last season, but he’s had an ERA over five since joining Tampa. This season has been rather inconsistent for Civale. He has five games of two or fewer earned runs, but also five with four or more earned runs. He hasn’t thrown six innings since April 16th, so it seems like they aren’t letting him get through the lineup a third time. The Cubs hitters are just 4-for-25 against him, but this might be the results of one game. 

My gut instinct was the Cubs are the better team and have the better pitcher. I think a lot of the data does support that, but you do need to be a bit weary of Assad’s last couple of road starts. Perhaps it was just the result of facing the NL Central teams that have become more familiar with him. I still believe the Cubs are the correct side in this game, but I’m going to cut it down to the first five innings as Civale will likely leave after five and should have allowed a couple of runs. Assad could be sharp enough to not allow a run. Back the Cubs through five innings. 

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