Sticky Florida Heat Equals OVER In Patriots, Dolphins Matchup

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Everyone is betting the Over 46 (-110) in the New England Patriots at the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 so let's go the other way and BET OVER 46 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbooks.

According to VSIN, more than 90% of the money at DraftKings is on the Under in Patriots-Dolphins. But, the total opened at 44 according to Covers.com so the northern movement of this number is suspicious.

A major reason for all the pro-Under money was the expectation of rainy, windy conditions in Miami Sunday. However, according to AccuWeather.com, there's a 25% chance of rain or less between 1-4 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium.

Either way, it's going to be super-hot in Miami and defenses could wear out in the second half. Also, even if the weather doesn't break right for us, there are some football-based reasons for backing the Over in Patriots-Dolphins Sunday.

For instance, Miami hired an offensive-minded head coach this offseason and acquired Pro Bowl WR Tyreek Hill to maximize QB Tua Tagovailoa. The market is too low on Tua in my opinion and Miami's offense will be a team strength in 2022.

Furthermore, New England's defense got weaker this offseason and we should see more 11-personnel (three wide receivers) from the Patriots. This is the first time in years the Patriots don't have a fullback on the roster.

Also, we should see Patriots QB Mac Jones air it out more in 2022 because we know Bill Belichick is a master at manipulating the officials.

The NFL announced this offseason that the officiating would be calling more illegal contact by defenders on wideouts. Belichick will coach up New England's wide receivers on how to work the refs.

Finally, New England parted ways with elite CB J.C. Jackson and LB Kyle Van Noy, which hurts the pass coverage. Van Noy was the highest-graded LB in pass coverage according to Pro Football Focus and Jackson ranked fifth among cornerbacks.

We got reverse line movement headed South of the total, crazy hot weather conditions, officiating, weakened defenses and offensive improvements.

BET the OVER 46 (-110) in Patriots-Dolphins at DraftKings Sportsbooks.

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Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events. Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB. Clark graduated from St. John University.