Steele Returns For Cubs, But Padres Should Take This One

Padres vs. Cubs, 7:40 ET

This weekend worked out pretty well overall as I put out four plays and went 2-1. You may be wondering about the record, thinking the math doesn't add up. You'd be correct. This is why I stress playing games with only the listed pitchers if you tail me. On Saturday, I put in a play on the Mets and Luis Severino pitching. He was scratched and the Rays went on to win the game 3-1. I don't write it in every article, which may not be fair to the new readers, but it also would be overly repetitive considering I post daily. I have a bet for today's game between the Padres and the Cubs - make sure your bet is on the pitchers listed. 

The Padres just made a splash in the trade market, landing one of the best contact hitters in baseball, Luis Arrarez. He made an immediate impact for them, going 4-for-6 in his debut. This guy is a great addition to a club that could do some damage if there are some baserunners on. This isn't the first time the Padres have tried to make a change in the season and grab a great available player. The question is if this one can turn the team around and propel them to some wins. So far, the team is 1-1 with him in the lineup. The offense really isn't the issue for the Padres, though I don't think the pitching staff is all that bad either. The staff has a 4.28 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .241 against them though. I think the issue has to be that they are allowing too many hits with runners in scoring position. Yu Darvish is taking the ball for the Padres tonight, but he hasn't been the problem for the Padres. Darvish is off to a nice start with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. This is fairly in line with what he has done in his career. He isn't going overly deep into games though, as he has gone over five innings just once this season in six starts. Darvish has held the Cubs hitters to just .208 over their at-bats against him (15-for-72). Only three of those hits have gone for extra bases. 

Chicago Cubs starter Justin Steele throws a pitch vs. the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. (Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)

If you look at the two clubs in today's contest, the Cubs are 21-14 and the Padres are 18-19. The Cubs are hitting .237 compared to the Padres .259. They've scored 21 fewer runs, 50 fewer hits, and have a lower On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage. The Cubs do have a better ERA (3.75 to 4.28) than the Padres, but they have identical WHIPs. They've issued about the same amount of walks and equal strikeouts. They have held their opponents to a lower batting average than the Padres. Maybe the Cubs record is a product of using their runs at the right time or being better when runners are in scoring position both on offense and when pitching. Today the Cubs get a boost to the rotation as well as they get Justin Steele. Steele is their ace and was the Opening Day starter this season. He made it through 4.2 innings and allowed just one earned run and three hits in that time. This could be huge as the Cubs already have one great pitcher in the rotation with Shota Imanaga, and now Steele could give them two great options. He went 5.1 innings last year against the Padres and allowed just three hits and two walks. 

This is a game that could see Steele come back and dominate, or he could struggle against a very good lineup. Darvish is one of the better pitchers out there, and the Cubs are missing some of the key pieces of their lineup. They are also coming off of a big weekend series against the Brewers where they took two of three games. This might be a bit of a letdown spot so I'll take the Padres through five innings. It is very possible that Steele pitches well and dominates this game, but I prefer to take the Padres to through in five. 

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