Starting Pitchers Should Rebound To Control Offenses

Rays vs. Twins, 1:10 ET

This has been the worst stretch of baseball betting I've had all season. In situations like this, you typically feel like the world is caving in and you are searching for any victory that you can find. The only victory I can think of right now is that I'm still up on the season. Maybe one other is that I'm determined to get my money back, and I refuse to give up. Moral victories don't line our pockets or allow us to buy any cool stuff, so I need to turn it around and I am confident that I will do so sooner rather than later. Sometimes you need to weather the storm, but I am hopeful I can get to smooth sailing in this game between the Rays and Twins.

This clearly isn't the best Rays team or season they've had, but they are fairly competitive for the season. If the offense could start to hit a little more consistently, they would probably be a team sitting above .500 rather than living below like they are right now. The team is currently only hitting .232 for the season and only has 285 runs for the year. That puts the team with fewer than four runs scored per game. That puts an immense amount of pressure on the pitching staff to be perfect and in a year without Tyler Glasnow (traded to the Dodgers in the offseason) and Shane McClanahan (injured), there isn't much opportunity for perfection. Although you can't blame the offense's struggle on one person, Randy Arozarena is certainly the one who will draw the most criticism. Arozarena does lead the team in home runs, but he is hitting just .179 for the season. If he can get hot, I'd expect the Rays to jump up the standings at least a little bit. Today, they have Zack Littell going for the Rays. Littell is 2-5 with a  4.24 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. Those numbers aren't terrible, but they also aren't front of the staff numbers. No one is trying to say Littell is an Ace, either. He had a nice stretch of three straight quality starts, but he followed that with his worst outing of the season as he only lasted two innings against the Braves and allowed six earned runs. He has allowed seven home runs in his last six games. Twins hitters are just 6-for-26 against him with only one extra-base hit.

Apr 22, 2024; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Zack Littell (52) throws a pitch during the sixth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins are above .500 and last season that was essentially all they needed to do in order to get into the playoffs and win the AL Central. This season, not quite as much. The Guardians and Royals are both playing very good baseball and realistic contenders for the division this season. Even the Tigers are fairly hot on the heels of the Twins. The White Sox are still in professional baseball, but I wouldn't say they actually play professional baseball. The Twins are playing great right now as well and putting together a very nice run as we rapidly approach the midway point of the season. The hitting has been surprisingly good this season with the club hitting .245 and in the top-10 of runs scored for the year. I feel like the offense has been an issue in the past few years, but they are taking nice strides this season. The pitching staff has taken a bit of a step back with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. Today they have one of their better starters going with Simeon Woods Richardson taking the hill. For the season he is just 2-1 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He is coming off of a somewhat rough start, going just four innings and allowing four earned runs. This was just the second time that he allowed four or more runs this season, so it is somewhat rare considering this will be his 12th start of the year. He has never faced the Rays and does a fairly decent job of limiting the damage the first time through the lineup.

This pitching matchup seems a bit more evenly matched than some of the numbers indicate. Woods Richardson has been a good pitcher, but Littell finds ways to keep most offenses from scoring a ridiculous amount. I think overall the game should be an under. I expect both of the pitchers to rebound from the previously poor outings they had. I'll take the under. I do lean toward the Twins winning this game as well.

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