Starters Will Keep Bats From Getting Going

Twins vs. Guardians, 6:10 ET

I didn't have a great Sunday, but it was a good week overall for baseball. I went just 1-2 as I lost on Sunday Night Baseball in extra innings, and Kevin Guasman gave up way too many runs in the game against the Yankees for my total play to have any chance. It was a brutal stretch for Gausman and cost me a chance at a winning day. Let's move on to today's slate, a smaller slate with the Twins taking on the Guardians on Monday night. 

The Twins are struggling to start the season, and unfortunately, I don't have a ton of faith in them to turn it around. They don't really do anything better than anyone else in the division. They don't have a better pitching staff, they don't have a better offense, and their defense is pretty average. The team is currently sitting at 12-16. The only good news for Twins fans is that they are 9-6 at home, but just 3-10 on the road. The bad news is that the Twins play on the road tonight. I feel like almost all teams have terrible road records so maybe it isn't that big of a deal. Tonight, they send out Bailey Ober to the mound. Ober is 2-1 with a 5.04 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. To this point in the season, he is striking out about one hitter per inning. Here is why you shouldn't look at global numbers though: he has made two starts on the road and has a 9.35 ERA in 8.2 innings. However, he had 2.2 innings where he allowed eight earned runs and then a quality start against the Royals in his last road outing - a game where he went six innings and allowed just one earned run on five hits. Guardians hitters are absolutely awful against him with just eight hits in 69 at-bats and Jose Ramirez owns six of those hits. 

Aug 20, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober (17) pitches against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The Guardians are just 15-12, so it isn't like they are lighting the AL Central on fire. Last year they were chased by the Royals, Tigers, and even the Twins, but they also won the division. It never truly felt like they were in a ton of jeopardy with the division. They are playing fairly well at home this season with an 8-4 record. The team isn't hitting overly well, batting just .237 for the season and they've only scored 107 runs. These numbers are pretty much in line with the Twins offensive production. The Guardians are also struggling on the mound with a 4.37 team ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Gavin Williams is taking the mound for Cleveland. Williams is 2-1 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. This will be his sixth start of the season. In his two home starts, he has gone 11.1 innings and allowed a total of 3 earned runs. The Guardians have won both of those games. He has also done a great job of holding the Twins to limited success, going 4-for-23 against him.

This could be a really big challenge for the two teams tonight. The Guardians haven't hit Ober very well over time, but they do play better at home. The Twins struggle on the road, and they also didn't hit Williams all that well in the past few games. I really want to take the Guardians to win this game, but I think Ober has been too good. I'm going to back under 4.5 runs in the first five innings here. 

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