Stars Will Snuff Out Flames

Stars vs. Flames, 8:30 ET

Last night did not go as planned. I had one NHL play, just my sixth of the young season, and dropped it. I started 3-0 and now have gone 0-3. Fade, follow, doesn't really matter, I'm just trying to inform you of what I do. I do still maintain the one disclosure of my hockey handicapping (really all handicapping, but very specifically this) being a work in progress. Tonight, I've turned my attention to the Dallas Stars facing the Calgary Flames.

In the NBA, you'd look at a travel spot like this and see that the Flames have more rest, and have been at home. Then you'd look at the Stars and see they have been traveling then home, then traveling, then home, and now traveling again. Again, if this was the NBA, that would be a clear indicator that the Stars probably would drop this game. This isn't the NBA though. The NHL doesn't have load management, or lineup manipulation minutes before the games start. The players get tired, who doesn't? But, it seems like every single night, the players are attempting to play to the best of their ability. I bring all of this up because I've had to learn this a bit when I started handicapping hockey. The Stars are the better team and come into this game with a 5-1-1 record. They've been rather hot with the exception of a loss to the Maple Leafs - another good team. They are averaging three goals a game and allowing under 2.5 per game. The Flames are not a great team and have lost five straight games.

SAINT PAUL, MN - MARCH 07: Calgary Flames goaltender Jacob Markstrom (25) makes a save during the NHL game between the Calgary Flames and Minnesota Wild, on March 7th, 2023, at the Xcel Energy Center in Saint Paul, MN. (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

With a record of just 2-6-1 the Flames find themselves looking for anything that will work early in this season. They started the year with a really nice 5-3 win over Winnipeg, but since that game, they have scored more than three goals just once this season. Over their last five contests, all losses, they've scored six goals total and allowed 20 to find the back of the net. Hard to win games when you're getting outscored 3-1 on average. Tonight, I'm expecting Jake Oettinger between the pipes for Dallas. He's been very impressive this season with a 4-0-1 record and a 1.74 goals against per game average. He did allow three goals in his last game, so maybe he is coming out of his hot streak, but I think he can stop a Flames offense that isn't mustering many threats per game. The Flames are likely to start Jacob Markstrom in the net for this one. He's got a bad 1-5-1 record for the season, but he has saved 90% of shots against him and only has a 2.88 goals against per game average. That's certainly respectable. The issue is his offense gives him nothing to work with and the defense is allowing too many shot attempts per game.

I need a win tonight and I'm taking the Stars to be the better team. It isn't the most ideal spot as I mentioned, but I feel like a lot of those reasons don't really resonate in other sports like they do in the NBA. So, I'll throw that out the window and take the better team, the better goaltender, and the one on a hotter streak. I'll back Dallas to win the game at -135.

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