St. John's Will Cover At UConn Sans Donovan Clingan Saturday
My St. John's Red Storm (8-3) opened Big East play by clobbering the Xavier Musketeers 81-66 Wednesday. I say "my" because I'm a St. John's graduate. Trust me, I'm not bragging. I'm telling you because I hate the No. 5 UConn Huskies (10-1). There's no way I'm betting them versus the Johnnies.
UConn hosts St. John's Saturday at XL Center in Hartford for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off. The Huskies are -11.5 favorites at BetMGM and the total is 147.5 to 148, depending on where you look. My St. John's degree aside, there are basketball reasons for fading UConn.
The Huskies lost their Big East opener 75-60 at the Seton Hall Pirates Wednesday. Clingan only played 14 minutes before leaving the game with an injury. While he played, UConn led 22-18, and Cligan had 14 points and 7 rebounds.
This is a huge loss for the Huskies, especially given the matchup. Donovan Clingan leads Connecticut in net rating and the Big East in player efficiency rating. Clingan would've been facing St. John's big Joel Soriano who leads the conference in rebounds per game and true shooting.
St. John's Red Storm C Joel Soriano dunks over Xavier Musketeers forward Gytis Nemeiksa at Carnesecca Arena in Queens, New York. (Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports)
Without Clingan on the floor, Soriano should dominate the paint. This could collapse Connecticut's perimeter defense and get the Johnnies open looks. They rank 83rd nationally in 3-point shooting, per Ken Pom, and the Huskies are 303rd in defensive 3-point shooting.
Also, the market hasn't made a big enough adjustment off of the Clingan injury news. UConn opened as -11.5 favorites and has fallen to -10.5 at Betcris and Bookmaker. Those are two of the sharpest sportsbooks in the world and the legal U.S. shops will lower their odds shortly.
Finally, Sports Reference does a "Simple Rating System" (SRS), which blends strength of schedule with scoring margin. The Huskies have a +18.7 SRS and the Red Storm are +14.3. Without Clingan, I'd lower UConn's power rating by at least 2.5 points.